Guide · New launch or resale?
Resale vs new launch condo: the truth agents won't tell you
Earlier this month, the Business Times published a study that most property agents would rather you didn't see: resale condos made better returns than new launches, and not just in one or two areas, but in every region. I work with both, and I'm not here to argue with it. The data is mostly right. But "mostly" is where it gets interesting, because in some developments the people who bought at launch did far better than those who bought resale. What they had in common wasn't new launch or resale. It was when they bought, and the price they paid to get in.
Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video, with the figures from its slides laid out in tables.
In short:
- In the Business Times study, resale buyers did better in every region: in the suburbs, a median 4.0% a year against 2.9% for new launch buyers, with the same gap in the city fringe and prime districts.
- That's mostly because a new launch price has land, construction, marketing and the developer's profit built in. A resale buyer pays today's market price, and can negotiate.
- But in many projects, in every region, launch buyers did far better: at City Square Residences, about $1.65 million (6.3% a year) against about $595,000 (4.0%) for resale buyers. What decided the profit was when they bought and what they paid.
- Waiting for rates to fall? A 1% cut saves about $700 a month on a $1.5 million loan. A $250,000 rise in price costs about $650 a month and $62,500 more down payment, and you can refinance a rate, but never the price.
- Land is getting more expensive, so future launches will very likely start higher. Before you buy anything, ask the one question at the end of this guide.
What the Business Times study found
The study compared people who bought new launches from the developer with people who bought resale from another owner. In every region, the resale buyers did better.
| Median result | Bought new from the developer | Bought resale |
|---|---|---|
| Prime districts (CCR) | 1.9% a yeargain of $290,000 | 2.8% a yeargain of $370,000 |
| City fringe (RCR) | 2.6% a yeargain of $233,000 | 3.7% a yeargain of $328,000 |
| Suburbs (OCR) | 2.9% a yeargain of $229,170 | 4.0% a yeargain of $282,000 |
Source: The Business Times, 3 October 2026 (Vairavan Shanmugam, URA Realis).
Why? When you buy a new launch, the land cost, construction, marketing and the developer's profit are all built into the price, so on day one you start with a premium. When you buy resale, you pay what the market is paying today, and you can negotiate. The resale buyer starts at the market price; the new launch buyer starts at a premium. That gap explains a lot of these numbers.
Is it true? Mostly. But look at when people bought
Generally, yes: across the market, resale does outperform new launch, and the numbers back it up. But here's what the headlines don't tell you. Not every project follows the trend, and in some developments the new launch buyers did much better than the resale buyers. A big part of that comes down to one thing: when you buy.
To understand it, split the timeline into two parts: before Covid and after. Many of these projects launched in the 2000s. Prices went up, the market peaked around 2013, and from 2013 all the way to 2020 prices were almost flat, with small rises here and drops there. That's quite normal: once a project reaches TOP and buyers can move in, prices usually stay fairly flat for a while.
| Resale price per sq ft | 2015 to 2020 | 2020 to 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Queens | $1,256 → $1,240−1.3% | $1,240 → $1,832+47.7% |
| Caspian | $1,045 → $1,123+7.5% | $1,123 → $1,602+42.7% |
| Melville Park | $736 → $682−7.3% | $682 → $962+41.1% |
| Cote D'Azur | $1,292 → $1,385+7.2% | $1,385 → $1,885+36.1% |
| Southbank | $1,631 → $1,639+0.5% | $1,639 → $1,886+15.1% |
Source: PropNex, as shown in my video.
Then Covid hit in 2020, and everything changed. There was a shortage of raw materials, construction got delayed and new homes couldn't be completed on time, but people still needed a place to stay. Demand shifted to resale homes that were ready to move into. There wasn't enough supply for very strong demand, new launch prices went up, and resale prices naturally followed. Melville Park resold for just over $300 psf in its early years; today it's at about $962 psf.
So in 2026, resale prices are generally already at a very high point. Will they keep going up from here? Honestly, nobody can tell you that for sure. But the last time resale prices peaked, in 2013, the market went flat for years.
The projects that bucked the trend
So is the article right to say resale always beats new launch? PropNex Research looked at every resale of a non-landed home from 2024 to September 2026, and compared sellers who had bought at launch with sellers who had bought resale. In these developments, the launch buyers did better.
Prime districts (CCR)
| Average profit | Bought at launch | Bought resale |
|---|---|---|
| ICON99-year leasehold, completed 2007 | $914,5294.3% a year | $52,6290.8% a year |
| The Sail @ Marina Bay99-year leasehold, 2008 | $1,090,3703.8% a year | −$21,0110.4% a year |
| Parc EmilyFreehold, 2008 | $1,293,2665.0% a year | $203,6601.8% a year |
| Viz at HollandFreehold, 2008 | $1,624,8005.4% a year | $404,9652.8% a year |
| Marina Bay Residences99-year leasehold, 2010 | $673,9211.3% a year | −$327,883−1.3% a year |
| Residences The MetzFreehold, 2007 | $1,200,3333.8% a year | $384,5941.2% a year |
| The ImperialFreehold, 2006 | $2,737,7775.0% a year | $931,2092.7% a year |
| 8 @ Mount Sophia103-year leasehold, 2007 | $1,085,9354.0% a year | $236,9361.7% a year |
| Grange ResidencesFreehold, 2004 | $5,872,1474.9% a year | $2,843,2002.7% a year |
| Glentrees999-year leasehold, 2005 | $2,951,4005.7% a year | $788,4563.6% a year |
At ICON, those who bought at launch made an average profit of about $915,000, about 4.3% a year. Those who bought resale made about $53,000, less than 1% a year. At The Sail, launch buyers made over $1 million, and resale buyers made a loss. At Marina Bay Residences, launch buyers still made about $674,000, while resale buyers lost about $328,000 on average.
Why the difference? Remember the timeline: the launch buyers got in during the early years, before prices climbed. The resale buyers came in later, at a higher price, so even with the market at a high point today, there's much less profit left for them, and some are losing money. In these projects, it's not really new launch versus resale. It's when you got in, and what price you paid.
City fringe (RCR)
| Average profit | Bought at launch | Bought resale |
|---|---|---|
| Southbank99-year leasehold, completed 2010 | $1,454,6036.2% a year | $225,2862.3% a year |
| City Square ResidencesFreehold, 2008 | $1,651,8316.3% a year | $595,2274.0% a year |
| The Beacon99-year leasehold, 2008 | $1,094,1745.5% a year | $380,9723.3% a year |
| De RoyaleFreehold, 2006 | $1,549,6005.7% a year | $962,9633.8% a year |
| Citylights99-year leasehold, 2007 | $1,065,6465.6% a year | $449,4973.7% a year |
| One St Michael'sFreehold, 2009 | $1,282,4636.0% a year | $560,3334.3% a year |
| Meraprime99-year leasehold, 2006 | $1,636,4935.9% a year | $676,7144.3% a year |
| The Crest99-year leasehold, 2017 | $284,1071.4% a year | −$8,1910.0% a year |
| AlexisFreehold, 2012 | $381,7783.0% a year | $99,5791.7% a year |
| One-North Residences99-year leasehold, 2009 | $715,6933.1% a year | $281,2571.9% a year |
Same story. At City Square Residences, launch buyers made about $1.65 million on average, about 6.3% a year, and resale buyers did well too: about $595,000, or 4% a year. At Citylights, launch buyers made over $1 million at about 5.6% a year, and resale buyers about $450,000, or 3.7% a year.
The Crest is the one to notice. It was completed in 2017, much more recently, and its launch buyers made about $284,000, much less than at the older projects: they bought later, at higher prices, closer to when the market went flat. Even so, they still did better than the resale buyers who came after them, who roughly broke even. Again, it comes back to timing and the price you enter at.
Suburbs (OCR)
| Average profit | Bought at launch | Bought resale |
|---|---|---|
| Varsity Park99-year leasehold, completed 2008 | $1,647,6576.3% a year | $760,5003.6% a year |
| Grand Duchess at St Patrick'sFreehold, 2010 | $2,736,9076.3% a year | $1,037,2224.2% a year |
| The Tapestry99-year leasehold, 2021 | $268,2493.7% a year | $38,5281.9% a year |
| The Alps Residences99-year leasehold, 2019 | $340,7474.3% a year | $94,9972.6% a year |
| Le Quest99-year leasehold, 2020 | $208,4252.7% a year | $78,8671.2% a year |
| The Raintree99-year leasehold, 2008 | $1,253,1926.0% a year | $524,7344.6% a year |
| The Centris99-year leasehold, 2009 | $1,362,7996.5% a year | $568,9875.2% a year |
| Carabelle956-year leasehold, 2009 | $1,605,7506.1% a year | $615,2904.9% a year |
| Clementiwoods99-year leasehold, 2010 | $1,223,3645.1% a year | $503,8334.2% a year |
| Edelweiss ParkFreehold, 2006 | $999,8734.6% a year | $366,1533.8% a year |
Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis: resale transactions from 2024 to 27 September 2026. Each resale is measured against the unit's last caveated purchase, so the profits are gross: before stamp duties, interest, taxes and other selling costs. Projects with fewer than 3 resale transactions were left out, and some have only a handful, so treat the averages as a guide.
The same pattern shows up in the suburbs. At Varsity Park, launch buyers made about $1.65 million on average, about 6.3% a year, and resale buyers about $760,000, or 3.6% a year. At The Centris, it was about $1.36 million (6.5% a year) against about $569,000 (5.2%). At Edelweiss Park, launch buyers made almost $1 million at 4.6% a year, and resale buyers about $366,000 at 3.8%.
Even at a more recent project, The Alps Residences, completed in 2019, launch buyers made about $341,000, about 4.3% a year, against about $95,000, or 2.6% a year, for resale buyers. Those launch buyers got in before Covid, before prices surged, so when the market went up after 2020 they rode the entire wave.
So across prime districts, the city fringe and the suburbs, the pattern is the same. Resale doesn't always outperform new launch. What really decided the profit was when you bought, and the price you paid to get in.
Should you wait for interest rates to drop?
Some of you might be thinking: interest rates are high now, so I should wait for them to come down, then buy. I get it, because rates have just gone up again. After the latest US Fed hike, banks here raised their home loan rates as well.
| Bank | Fixed rate a year | Fixed for |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | 2.00% | 1 or 2 years |
| OCBC | 2.08% | 3 years |
| Citi | 2.20% | 2 years |
| Maybank | 2.55% | 3 years |
Fixed home loan rates reported on 2 October 2026 for a $500,000 loan.
So as of early October, fixed rates range from about 2% to 2.5%. A fixed rate simply means your interest rate stays the same for a set period, usually two to three years.
What a 1% change in rates really costs you
Take a simple example: a $2 million property with a 75% loan over 30 years, so you borrow $1.5 million. Take 1.5% as the starting rate.
| Interest rate | Monthly instalment | Compared with 1.5% |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | $4,488 | −$689 |
| 1.0% | $4,825 | −$352 |
| 1.5% | $5,177 | – |
| 2.0% | $5,544 | +$367 |
| 2.5% | $5,927 | +$750 |
If rates drop by 1% to 0.5%, you save about $690 a month. If they go up by 1% to 2.5%, you pay about $750 more. So a 1% move changes your monthly payment by roughly $700 either way. That's a lot of money. But rates move up and down over time, and if they drop later, you can refinance to a cheaper package.
What happens when the price moves instead
Same example: 1.5% interest, a 75% loan, 30 years. This time, the price of the property goes up.
| Price | Down payment (25%) | Monthly instalment | Compared with $2M |
|---|---|---|---|
| $2 million | $500,000 | $5,177 | – |
| $2.25 million | $562,500 | $5,824 | +$647 |
| $2.5 million | $625,000 | $6,471 | +$1,294 |
| $2.75 million | $687,500 | $7,118 | +$1,941 |
| $3 million | $750,000 | $7,765 | +$2,588 |
If the price goes up from $2 million to $2.25 million, your instalment goes up by about $650 a month: almost exactly what you'd save from a full 1% rate cut. At $2.5 million, it goes up by about $1,300 a month, double what a 1% cut would save you. And it's not just the monthly payment: at $2.5 million you need $625,000 up front instead of $500,000. That's $125,000 more in cash and CPF before you even collect your keys.
So while you're waiting for rates to drop by 1%, if prices go up by even $250,000, your savings are gone. And here's the key difference: if rates drop later, you can refinance. The price you pay is fixed for as long as you own the property.
What pushes prices up: land cost
A big part of it is land. When a developer buys a site, that price is locked in, and it flows straight into the launch price you'll see about a year later. Land cost is quoted in dollars per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr): in simple terms, how much the developer pays for every square foot it's allowed to build. If the land gets more expensive, the homes built on it get more expensive too.
River Green vs River Modern: next door, eight months apart
Here are two plots of land right next to each other, both on River Valley Green.
| River Valley Green | River Green (Parcel A) | River Modern (Parcel B) |
|---|---|---|
| Land bought | June 2024 | February 2025 |
| Land price | $1,325 psf ppr | $1,420 psf ppr7% higher |
| Launched | August 2025 | March 2026 |
| Average launch price | $3,130 psf | $3,266 psfabout 4% higher |
| Median 3-bedroom price | $2.65 million786 to 883 sq ft | $3.06 million797 to 1,109 sq ft |
Same neighbourhood, same location. The difference is when the land was bought. Part of the gap in the 3-bedroom median price is because River Modern's 3-bedrooms come in bigger layouts. But per square foot, River Modern is about $136 more, and on an 850 sq ft 3-bedroom that's roughly $115,000.
This isn't about one project being better than the other. River Modern isn't overpriced: it's priced for its land cost. The developer simply paid more for the land, so the launch price started higher. That's what waiting can look like: not a dramatic jump, just a quiet increase built in from the start.
Dunearn Road: the same unit, a year later
Another example, on Dunearn Road. Dunearn House's land was bought in June 2025, and nearby, the Dunearn Road government land sale site was sold in 2026, about a year later.
| A 900 sq ft unit | Dunearn House | Dunearn Road site |
|---|---|---|
| Land price | $1,410 psf pprJune 2025 | $1,625 psf ppr2026 |
| Launch price | $3,140 psfaverage, launched July 2026 | $3,350 psfmy estimate if it launches there, not a price |
| Price of the unit | About $2.83 million | About $3.02 million |
| Monthly instalment | About $7,325 | About $7,817 |
Instalments for a 75% loan over 30 years at 1.5% (PropNex Research).
That's about $500 more a month for a similar unit on the same road, just because the land was bought a year later.
Developers also know that buyers have a budget. So they can still launch at $3,350 psf but keep the price at $2.83 million, and the only way to do that is to make the unit smaller. At $3,350 psf, $2.83 million gets you about 845 sq ft instead of 900: same price, same monthly instalment, about 55 sq ft less space. If you have the chance to buy the bigger unit at today's price, why would you wait to pay the same amount for a smaller one?
Land prices are rising across Singapore
This isn't just two projects. Here are the recent land prices in the prime districts and the city fringe.
| Launched | Land price | Average price since launch |
|---|---|---|
| River GreenCCR | $1,325 psf ppr | $3,151 psf |
| Dunearn HouseCCR | $1,410 psf ppr | $3,133 psf |
| River ModernCCR | $1,420 psf ppr | $3,284 psf |
| Amberwood at HollandCCR | $1,432 psf ppr | $3,019 psflaunch weekend |
| Upperhouse at Orchard BoulevardCCR | $1,617 psf ppr | $3,405 psf |
| Coming next | Land price |
|---|---|
| Tanjong Rhu RoadRCR | $1,455 psf ppr |
| Holland PlainCCR | $1,491 psf ppr |
| Berlayar DriveRCR | $1,515 psf ppr |
| Dover DriveRCR | $1,556 psf ppr |
| Dunearn RoadCCR | $1,625 psf ppr |
| River Valley Green (Parcel C)CCR | $1,730 psf ppr |
| Bukit Timah Road (Newton)CCR | $1,820 psf ppr |
Source: PropNex Research, URA, URA Realis, data up to 27 September 2026; Amberwood at Holland's price is from its launch weekend.
The launched projects have sold at about $3,000 to $3,400 psf, on land that cost about $1,300 to $1,600 psf ppr. The prime sites coming next cost $1,491 to $1,820. With land costing this much more, future launches in the prime areas could cross $3,500 psf. These are estimates, but the direction is very clear.
The suburbs
The same thing is happening in the suburbs.
| Launched | Land price | Average price since launch |
|---|---|---|
| Tengah Garden Residences | $821 psf ppr | $2,121 psf |
| Parktown Residence | $885 psf ppr | $2,356 psf |
| Lentor Gardens Residences | $920 psf ppr | $2,354 psf |
| Pinery Residences | $1,004 psf ppr | $2,547 psf |
| Narra Residences | $1,020 psf ppr | $2,166 psf |
| Elta | $1,250 psf ppr | $2,545 psf |
| Vela Bay | $1,388 psf ppr | $2,885 psf |
| Coming next | Land price |
|---|---|
| Lentor Signature | $1,278 psf ppr |
| Bedok Rise Residences | $1,330 psf ppr |
| New Upper Changi Road | $1,537 psf ppr |
Source: PropNex Research, URA, URA Realis, data up to 6 September 2026.
Tengah Garden Residences bought its land at $821 psf ppr and has sold at an average of $2,121 psf. Vela Bay paid $1,388 and has sold at an average of $2,885 psf. The New Upper Changi Road site cost $1,537 psf ppr, more than Vela Bay paid for its land. So what will these upcoming projects launch at? I'll let you guess.
The one question to ask before you buy
So, does resale really outperform new launch? Generally, yes. But the projects that bucked the trend show us it's not really about new launch versus resale. It's about when you buy, and the price you get in at.
If you're waiting for interest rates to drop: rates move, and you can refinance, but the price you pay stays with you. And with land costs rising, future new launches are very likely to start higher.
So before you buy anything, new or resale, ask yourself:
- How much more am I paying, compared with the resale next door, and is it worth it?
- Could I still pay comfortably if rates went up by 1%?
For some of my clients the answer is a new launch, and for others it's resale. It really depends on your numbers and your plans. If you'd like me to run these numbers for your situation, drop me a message.
Questions people ask me
Do resale condos make more money than new launches?
Generally, yes. In the Business Times study of October 2026, resale buyers had higher median returns in every region: 4.0% a year against 2.9% in the suburbs, 3.7% against 2.6% in the city fringe and 2.8% against 1.9% in the prime districts. A new launch price has the developer's land, building and marketing costs and profit built in, while a resale buyer pays today's market price and can negotiate.
Why did some new launch buyers do better than resale buyers?
Timing. At projects like ICON, City Square Residences and Varsity Park, launch buyers got in early, before prices climbed, and rode the rise after 2020. Resale buyers came in later at higher prices, so there was less profit left for them, and at The Sail and Marina Bay Residences they made a loss on average. What decided the profit was when they bought and what they paid.
Should I wait for interest rates to fall before I buy?
Not for that alone. On a $1.5 million loan over 30 years, a 1% rate cut saves about $690 a month. A $250,000 rise in the price adds about $650 a month and $62,500 to your down payment. If rates fall after you buy, you can refinance, but you can't refinance the price you paid.
How much does a 1% change in interest rates add to my mortgage?
About $700 a month on a $1.5 million, 30-year loan: from $5,177 at 1.5% to $5,927 at 2.5%, or down to $4,488 at 0.5%.
How does land cost affect new launch prices?
A developer's land price is locked in when it wins the site, and it flows into the launch price about a year later. River Modern's land cost 7% more than River Green's next door, bought eight months later, and River Modern launched about 4% higher per square foot.
Related guides
- 2026 property prices explained: why land cost will push condo prices higher.
- $1.6 million budget: new launch condo or resale EC?.
- OCR hits $3,000 psf. Here's what still works in resale.
- Most buyers overpay in new launches. Here's how to spot the sweet spot unit.
- The next 6 months could be a trap for buyers.
All figures are from my video of 26 October 2026. The study: The Business Times, 3 October 2026 (Vairavan Shanmugam, URA Realis). Project profits: PropNex Research and URA Realis, resales from 2024 to 27 September 2026, gross (before stamp duties, interest, taxes and other costs). Price trends: PropNex. Bank rates: as reported on 2 October 2026 for a $500,000 loan. Land prices and average selling prices: PropNex Research, URA and URA Realis. Mortgage figures assume a 75% loan over 30 years. Estimated launch prices are estimates, not official prices, and past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Your own numbers will differ, so get advice on your own finances before you decide. This guide is general information, not financial advice.