Guide · Land prices
2026 property prices explained: why land cost will push condo prices higher
Is 2026 still a good time to buy a condo? Prices already feel high, so a lot of people wonder whether they've missed the boat, or whether entering now means buying at the wrong time. Yet a few weeks before my video, River Modern sold about 90% of its units on launch day, at prices that went above $3,600 psf. Buyers aren't rushing in blindly. They're reading a leading indicator most people ignore: land cost.
Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video, with extra detail and what has happened since.
In short:
- Developers work back from the land price: land plus construction, financing, fees and taxes gives a break-even, and they launch about 10% to 15% above it.
- So what developers pay for land today tells you roughly where launch prices will be in a year or two. It works like a forward indicator.
- Suburban (OCR) land is now selling for what city-fringe (RCR) land cost a year ago, and city-fringe land for what prime land cost.
- "Buying low" today means entering projects built on land bought before this step up, so future launches nearby support your exit.
"If I buy at $3,600 psf, can I sell at $4,000?"
That's what one buyer asked me after River Modern's launch. Many were shocked: "Are people crazy? Why is everyone rushing in now?" A lot of people assume today's buyers are rushing in blindly, but there are leading indicators driving these decisions.
So before you act, the important question isn't just whether to buy. It's whether you're following the crowd, or following a structured way to enter the market safely and still buy low in today's context. And buying low doesn't mean buying at the absolute lowest price. The last thing you want is to buy something and watch the price keep dropping. Are prices today the lowest of the last few years? No. But that's not how to look at it. The question is how to enter where the downside is protected and the upside still exists. That's what I call the V-shape window, which I explain in my guide on why prices are still rising.
How developers price a launch
Property prices in Singapore don't move as randomly as people think, because the government controls land supply. It releases land through the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme, and developers bid for the sites. Whatever they pay eventually shapes the prices you see at future launches.
Developers are business owners. They don't bid randomly. Before committing to land, they work out every cost: construction, land financing, professional and legal fees, taxes, marketing. From there they derive a break-even price. Selling at break-even only covers costs; no developer takes that risk just to break even, so they typically price 10% to 15% above it, depending on the market. Here's River Modern:
| River Modern, River Valley | Per square foot |
|---|---|
| Land price | $1,420 psf ppr |
| Estimated break-even (land plus all costs) | About $2,571 |
| Starting prices at launch | From about $2,877 |
| Average selling price | About $3,266 |
psf ppr: dollars per square foot of the floor area the site is allowed to build.
And before they even bid, developers ask: if I build this, can I sell at this price? If the answer is no, they don't bid. If they're confident, they submit, and if the government accepts, the land is awarded. So every land price already contains the developer's view of future selling prices.
Land prices move in cycles
Plot average land prices from 2017 to 2025 and they follow what's happening in the market:
| Period | What happened | Land prices |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 to 2020 | High interest rates, lots of unsold supply, then COVID; buyers and developers cautious | One of the lowest points |
| 2021 | Rates dropped, GDP improved, people wanted more space, buyers came back | Developers bid higher again |
| 2022 to 2024 | Rates rose, cooling measures, harmonisation changed how projects were planned | Stabilised |
| 2025 into 2026 | Confidence back, rates easing | Rising again, some bids surprisingly high |
Once you see how land prices move, you realise future property prices aren't random. If land costs are already moving up, future launch prices will follow. Buying low is no longer about comparing past prices; it's about positioning yourself before the next wave of higher land costs comes through.
CCR, RCR and OCR in one minute
| Region | What it covers | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| CCR, Core Central Region | Prime districts, very central and high-end | Orchard, Marina Bay, Newton |
| RCR, Rest of Central Region | The city fringe: close to town, but not in the core | Toa Payoh, Boon Keng |
| OCR, Outside Central Region | Heartland areas further from the city; more mass-market prices | Punggol, Sengkang, Choa Chu Kang, Bukit Panjang |
Prices normally follow this order: lowest in the OCR, higher in the RCR, highest in the CCR. When River Modern launched, there was a lot of noise about oversupply in River Valley, and many buyers hesitated. It still sold very strongly. Why? Because more buyers are looking at where prices are heading, not just today's prices. They're taking advantage of today's land prices before the next wave comes in higher.
Reading land bids like a crystal ball
If you understand land cost and land supply, you can estimate where future launch prices will come in. Then you're not reacting to today's prices; you're planning ahead, which helps you future-proof your purchase for when you sell. Here are the bids I looked at:
Tanjong Rhu Road: an RCR site priced above a CCR one
The Tanjong Rhu Road site, in the RCR, went for $1,455 psf ppr. Compare that with River Modern, in the CCR: its land was bought at $1,420 psf ppr, and it went on to sell at an average of about $3,266 psf. So today an RCR site is being bid higher than a CCR site was a year earlier. Follow the logic and future RCR launches are very likely to come in higher than what we see today. That's why River Modern's buyers thought one step ahead: if future launches will cost more, it makes sense to enter now at a better location, which gives an easier exit later.
Bedok Rise: ten developers, nearly the same number
Bedok Rise, near Tanah Merah MRT, drew ten bids at the end of 2025. The top bid was $1,330 psf ppr, and the top bids were very close to one another: the second was only about 0.4% lower. Developers aren't bidding on emotion. They're running the numbers carefully and reaching very similar conclusions about what the land is worth.
Now compare it with Zyon Grand in River Valley, whose land was bought at about $1,202 psf ppr and which sold at an average of about $3,000 psf. If a project on $1,200 land sells at $3,000-plus, how much does a project on $1,330 land need to sell for? Even if Bedok Rise's developer prices competitively and starts at about $2,600 to $2,700 psf, you can see where prices are heading, and that's in the OCR, a heartland area. If the heartland is moving towards this range, what happens to RCR and CCR prices?
Dover Drive, one-north: above $1,500
A site I'd been driving past for a long time, opposite Fairfield Methodist School and within walking distance of one-north MRT, sold just before my video. The top bid was $1,556 psf ppr, and the second bidder was only about 4% lower: again, developers aligned on price. If land there is bought at this price, the future project is likely to sell at more than $3,000 psf. For a condo in the Buona Vista and one-north area, think about that for a moment.
This isn't a one-off. It's a clear trend, happening quite quietly, and many buyers I spoke to in the weeks before my video weren't aware of it yet.
The first-mover advantage
Buyers who enter now can take advantage of projects whose land was secured at a lower cost. If developers pay more for land, they still need a profit, so they have no choice but to sell at a higher price.
| Project or site | Region | Land price (psf ppr) |
|---|---|---|
| Penrith, Queenstown (sold at an average of about $2,800 psf) | RCR | $1,154 |
| Lakeside Drive (now Lucerne Grand) | OCR | $1,132 |
| Chuan Grove | OCR | $1,376 |
| Bedok Rise | OCR | $1,330 |
These OCR sites are coming very close to, or even exceeding, what RCR land cost, and all of it happened within about a year. So future OCR launches are likely to come in at much higher prices, even though their locations aren't as central. The opportunity today is to enter a project whose land was bought before this step up fully shows in the market. You're positioning yourself ahead of the next price movement, and you're supported by future land prices that are already higher, which means a safer, easier exit when you sell.
What higher land cost means for your budget
Say your budget is $2.1 million to $2.3 million. An 850 sq ft unit at about $2,500 to $2,700 psf falls in that range. Look at what that has bought:
| Project | Region | Land (psf ppr) | Average price (psf) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Skye at Holland | CCR | $1,285 | About $3,130 |
| Penrith | RCR | $1,154 | About $2,800 |
| Newer OCR sites: Lakeside Drive, Bedok Rise | OCR | $1,132 to $1,330 | Higher, once they launch |
With the same budget, you could once buy in a city-fringe location. Going forward, you may only be looking at heartland locations. That shift is already happening, and it isn't because developers are greedy or the market has gone crazy. Land costs have moved up, and once land prices rise, selling prices follow. The price you enter at in future will be higher than today.
What buying low really means
Not buying at the absolute lowest price: if prices are at an all-time low, something is usually very wrong with the market. Buying low is understanding where prices are heading, knowing what future land prices are likely to be, and positioning yourself before that shows up in the market. Compare today's land costs with resale prices that are already proven, and you'll see the benchmark is already being set. That's how you future-proof a purchase.
What has happened since
The land prices kept climbing after my video:
| Site, tender closed | Land price (psf ppr) |
|---|---|
| Lentor Central, March 2026 (OCR) | $1,278, the highest in Lentor so far |
| Dunearn Road second site, April 2026 (CCR) | $1,625, about 15% above the site next door a year earlier |
| Berlayar Drive, August 2026 (RCR) | $1,515, a new record for a pure residential RCR site |
The Lakeside Drive site launched on 3 October 2026 as Lucerne Grand. River Modern had only about 24 units left by 8 October. And URA's flash estimate for the third quarter shows private prices up 1.4%, with suburban non-landed homes up 2.2%: the OCR is catching up, just as the land prices suggested. I go through the bigger picture in my guide on the three forces behind prices.
Everyone's budget, timeline and goals are different. If you'd like to see which projects are still built on lower land costs and fit your budget, let's talk.
Questions people ask me
How do land prices affect new launch prices?
Developers add construction, financing, fees, taxes and marketing to the land price to get a break-even, then price about 10% to 15% above it. For River Modern, $1,420 psf ppr of land meant a break-even of about $2,571 psf and launch prices from about $2,877 psf.
Is it too late to buy in 2026?
Prices will always feel high if you only look at today. The better question is whether the project you're buying was built on land bought before the latest step up, so that future launches nearby will be priced above it.
Why would an OCR condo cost close to a city-fringe one?
Because OCR land is now being bought at prices close to what city-fringe land cost a year or two ago. Bedok Rise ($1,330 psf ppr) and Chuan Grove ($1,376 psf ppr) are both above Penrith's $1,154.
What is a break-even price?
The price per square foot a developer needs just to cover land and all other costs, with no profit. Launch prices sit above it, so break-even estimates give you a rough floor for future launches.
Does a close spread of bids mean anything?
Yes. When the top bids are within a few percent of each other, as at Bedok Rise and Dover Drive, developers have independently reached similar views of future selling prices.
Related guides
- Why property in Singapore won't get cheaper: the 3 forces.
- Singapore's private property market in 2026.
- Why property prices are still rising in 2026.
- How to spot the sweet spot unit in a new launch.
Land prices from URA tender results as reported by EdgeProp and others. River Modern's break-even and average price, and the average prices of Zyon Grand, Penrith and Skye at Holland, are as shown in my video of 30 March 2026. Private price index for 3Q 2026: URA's flash estimate of 1 October 2026. This guide is general information, not financial advice.