Guide · ECs vs condos
$1.6 million budget: new launch condo or resale EC? The profit difference is huge
With a budget of about $1.6 million, a new launch condo will probably get you a 2-bedroom. A resale EC can get you a proper 3-bedroom. Most people will tell you new launches have the first-mover advantage and are supposed to make more money. Is that true? I tracked real buyers who bought a new launch condo or a resale EC about three years ago and sold in 2025: same holding period, same market cycle. Here's which made more, and the risk most people don't talk about.
Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video, with extra detail and what has happened since.
In short:
- In HDB-heavy towns like Punggol, Sengkang and Canberra, ECs that launched 10% to 20% cheaper caught up with, and outperformed, nearby private condos.
- With about $1 million in 2021 to 2022, resale EC buyers at 1 Canberra made about $250,000 to $300,000; new launch buyers at The Watergardens made about $78,000 to $185,000, mostly because a 2-bedroom was all their budget bought.
- 3-bedroom for 3-bedroom, profits were similar, but the resale EC cost less, so its return was higher.
- The hidden risk: resale EC buyers compete with first owners sitting on $600,000 to $700,000 of profit, who can cut prices fast when demand drops.
Why compare these two
I deliberately chose areas with a strong supply of ECs and private condos nearby. In these areas, buyers often face the same dilemma with the same budget: a resale EC or a new launch condo? And the question isn't just preference; it's whether that choice affects how much money you make.
Punggol: Prive vs a private condo next door
Punggol has a very strong pool of HDB upgraders and a strong supply of ECs. On one side is Prive, an EC; nearby is a private condo completed in 2016. At launch, ECs are almost always cheaper than private condos, because they're subsidised: typically 10% to 20% below a new private launch. So most people assume ECs can never keep up.
Fast forward to today, and Prive, despite starting cheaper, has caught up with the private condo's prices and outperformed it overall. That already challenges the assumption that condos always do better than ECs.
Sengkang: Bellewaters vs Riverbank @ Fernvale
Sengkang is similar: a strong HDB upgrader base and plenty of ECs. Riverbank @ Fernvale is a private condo completed in 2017; Bellewaters is an EC that reached its MOP in 2023. They're only about a year apart in age, which makes for a fair comparison. At launch, Bellewaters was almost 20% cheaper than Riverbank, which is typical. Today, Bellewaters has caught up with and outperformed Riverbank. In areas with strong EC supply and strong upgrader demand, pricing power doesn't always work the way people expect.
Canberra: same budget, different unit
Canberra, in Sembawang, also has a strong EC supply, and in the last few years an influx of new launch condos like Commodore and The Watergardens at Canberra. Buyers there had a real choice: a resale EC with the keys almost immediately, or a new launch condo with a three- to four-year wait. The Watergardens only recently got its TOP.
Here I compared actual unit types, not whole projects: buyers who entered in 2021 to 2022 and sold in 2025, with purchase prices of about $1 million.
| Bought 2021 to 2022 for about $1 million, sold 2025 | What $1 million bought | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Canberra (resale EC) | A 3-bedroom of about 958 sq ft | About $250,000 to $300,000 |
| The Watergardens at Canberra (new launch) | A 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom of about 678 sq ft | About $78,000 to $185,000 |
On this comparison alone, buyers who chose the resale EC made significantly more. Why?
Function beats facade
The common narrative is that new launches make more money because of the first-mover advantage. That's not wrong, but it's not automatically true, especially in mass-market areas. When I bring buyers to these places, the contrast is obvious: at the new launch the driveway looks nicer, the landscaping is more polished, everything feels newer and more premium. The resale EC looks more functional and lived in. So why didn't the nicer landscaping translate into stronger performance?
Because in areas like Punggol, Sengkang, Canberra, Sembawang and Yishun, the main buyers of condos are HDB upgraders who already live nearby. They do care about the facade and the drop-off, but they care more about how practical the layout is, how much space they get, and whether the home works for their family.
1 Canberra's 958 sq ft 3-bedroom is very functional: three proper bedrooms, a household shelter, windows in all the bathrooms and the kitchen. Nothing fancy, but very livable. For the same budget at The Watergardens, buyers were realistically looking at a 678 sq ft 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom unit. If you're a family of four, does it make sense to squeeze into that, or take a 3-bedroom with space to grow? Families upgrading from HDB are used to space. Given the choice, they choose function over facade, and they won't pay extra just for the logo.
A fairer comparison: 3-bedroom vs 3-bedroom
So should you never buy a new launch? Not at all. So far it was a slightly unfair comparison: a 3-bedroom resale EC against a 2-bedroom new launch. Level the playing field, 3-bedroom against 3-bedroom, same entry period (2021 to 2022) and same exit (2025):
| 3-bedroom, bought 2021 to 2022, sold 2025 | Bought for about | Profits |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Canberra (resale EC) | $1 million | About $250,000 to $300,000-plus |
| The Watergardens at Canberra (new launch) | Close to $1.3 million | About $200,000-plus, close to $300,000 |
The profits are similar, so new launches still make money. But the purchase prices are very different, so on return on investment the resale EC stretched your dollar further. And beyond this one project, Commodore and The Watergardens, both new launches about three years earlier, made healthy profits from 2-bedrooms all the way to 4-bedrooms. There is still demand, and buyers willing to pay more for private condos.
The hidden risk in resale ECs
In the last few years, almost everything made money: ECs, resale condos, new launches. That's where people get complacent, because we keep looking at recent transactions and forget what the market was like before COVID.
When prices get stuck
Look at 1 Canberra. After completion in 2015, prices moved up nicely until 2018. Then, from 2018 to 2020, they went nowhere: they hovered around $870 to $900 psf for almost three years. A resale buyer who bought in 2018 and tried to sell in 2020 was unlikely to make much, or anything at all. Not because the project was bad, but because there were very few resale transactions, and with no volume, prices don't move.
During COVID, volume suddenly picked up, and prices responded very quickly, from about $873 psf to above $1,000 psf in a short time. Prices can also drop sharply within a quarter: from about $872 psf to $811 psf is about $60 psf, or about $60,000 on a 1,000 sq ft unit.
Why: you're buying from the first owners
When you buy resale, you're always buying from someone who entered much earlier, and you're at the mercy of the first owners. At 1 Canberra, the first buyers paid about $700 psf.
| If the price is… | A first owner (bought at about $700 psf, 1,000 sq ft) |
|---|---|
| $872 psf | About $170,000 profit |
| $811 psf, after a drop | Still close to $100,000 profit |
| About $1,274 psf, roughly today's level | About $600,000 to $700,000 profit on a typical unit |
Put yourself in their shoes. If the market slows, volume drops and buyers disappear for a while, but you really need to sell, would you insist on $1,300 psf if nobody's buying? Or would you accept $1,200 or $1,100, knowing you'd still walk away with a very healthy profit? Most owners would. That's why resale EC prices can soften quickly when demand drops. If you buy in at about $1,274 psf today, you're competing with owners who paid $700. And it isn't just 1 Canberra: owners at nearby ECs like The Visionaire and Brownstone are seeing profits above $700,000.
I'm not saying don't buy a resale EC. Just be aware that many EC owners are sitting on massive buffers, and as a resale buyer you're always somewhat at the mercy of how flexible they are on price.
Why new launch prices are steadier
At The Watergardens, most owners entered at roughly the same price, about $1,400 psf. Nobody bought at $700 or $900 psf. Because everyone's entry price is similar, prices move up together: nobody wants to be the first to undercut, because selling lower would mean taking a loss. Developers also support pricing by releasing units in stages. A resale EC has layers of owners, first owners, second owners and later buyers at higher prices, which creates very different selling behaviour. So although The Watergardens didn't show the highest profits, its prices tend to be more stable and easier to support on the way up.
Remember the context, too: COVID pushed property prices up very quickly, with tight supply and unusually strong demand. That pushed resale EC prices up very aggressively, and it won't necessarily repeat.
So which should you buy?
I've advised clients both ways. There's no one-size-fits-all answer; it comes down to your strategy, your timing and, most of all, your budget.
| Your budget | What I usually suggest | Why |
|---|---|---|
| About $1.3 million to $1.6 million | Look at resale ECs | A new launch at this price is usually a 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom or smaller; a resale EC can get you a decent 3-bedroom, and in mass-market areas space matters more than branding |
| About $2 million | A new launch can make more sense | You're no longer forced into the small-unit dilemma; you enter at launch, ride the full appreciation cycle and avoid being at the mercy of early owners |
If your budget is tight and you're buying in a mass-market area, layout and space matter more than branding, but accept the resale EC's price risk. If you have more flexibility and want more certainty in how prices move, a new launch may suit you better. Don't buy on headlines or blanket advice. Look at where the demand is, who your eventual buyers will be, and whether the layout makes sense for them.
What has happened since
- The EC rules changed on 8 May 2026. New ECs now have a 10-year MOP and no deferred payment scheme, and 90% of units go to first-timers. Fewer new ECs will reach the resale market after five years, so existing ECs on the old rules, and resale ECs past their MOP, may hold more appeal for second-timers. See my guide on the EC changes and the upgrade options.
- The EC income ceiling rose to $18,000 for EC sites tendered from 24 August 2026. Resale ECs past their MOP have no income ceiling for buyers.
- Suburban prices kept rising: URA's flash estimate shows OCR non-landed prices up 2.2% in the third quarter of 2026.
Deciding between a resale EC and a new launch? Tell me your budget and timeline, and I'll compare real options for you, including the first-owner risk.
Questions people ask me
Do ECs perform as well as private condos?
In HDB-heavy towns, often yes. Prive in Punggol and Bellewaters in Sengkang launched 10% to 20% below nearby private condos and later caught up with and outperformed them.
Is a resale EC or a new launch better for $1.6 million?
At $1.3 million to $1.6 million, a resale EC usually gets you a 3-bedroom while a new launch gets you a 2-bedroom, and in mass-market areas the bigger unit has been easier to resell. At about $2 million, a new launch becomes the stronger option.
What is the main risk of buying a resale EC?
You compete with first owners who bought far cheaper. At 1 Canberra they paid about $700 psf, so in a slow market they can cut prices and still profit, which can push prices down quickly.
Can anyone buy a resale EC?
After the 5-year MOP, resale ECs can be sold to Singapore citizens and PRs with no income ceiling; after 10 years they're fully private. New ECs on the latest rules have a 10-year MOP and are privatised after 15 years.
Why are new launch prices more stable?
Most owners bought at similar prices, so nobody wants to undercut and take a loss, and developers release units in stages. Resale ECs have layers of owners with very different entry prices.
Related guides
- The EC rules changed: your upgrade options.
- Bigger unit or better location: which actually made more profit?
- Before you buy a resale condo: GLS and harmonisation.
- Your property might appreciate, but can you sell it later?
Profits, prices and psf figures are from caveats as shown in my video of 29 December 2025; individual units vary. EC rules as announced on 8 May 2026 and income ceiling as announced on 23 August 2026. Private price index for 3Q 2026: URA's flash estimate of 1 October 2026. This guide is general information, not financial advice.