Guide · New launch or resale?

The next 6 months could be a trap for buyers

By Melissa Chan · From my YouTube video of 1 June 2026 · Updated 8 October 2026

A lot has happened at once in 2026: land prices moving up, property prices still climbing, and the EC rule changes, which don't only affect EC buyers but quietly shift where demand goes next. I've covered these topics separately before: land prices in one video, the EC changes in another, pricing and supply in a third. Put together, the picture becomes much clearer. If you haven't bought yet, the question is no longer whether to buy. It's how to position yourself for the second half of 2026: new launch, resale, or wait? Or has the market already shifted in a way that changes how you should think?

Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video, with some extra detail and what has happened since.

Land prices set the next launch prices

For anyone who hasn't watched my earlier videos, here's a quick step back to what happened over the last 6 to 9 months. In the video I show land prices across Singapore by region: the Core Central Region (CCR, prime central), the Rest of Central Region (RCR, city fringe) and the Outside Central Region (OCR, the more mass-market suburbs). Land prices are one of the clearest indicators of where future launch prices are heading.

"psf ppr" is the land price per square foot of floor area the site is allowed to build.

What I want you to notice isn't the individual projects, but the bigger pattern. These projects launched last year, but many of them sat on land developers had secured much earlier, at older and cheaper land prices. What we've seen so far is the old price cycle playing out. And what's already happened matters less than what happens in the next 6 to 12 months.

Based on what we're seeing today, there's a price wave of around 30% ahead of us. The newer land bids are coming in much higher: Vela Bay's land was bought at $1,388 psf ppr, and another suburban site came in at $1,179 psf ppr, compared with around $900 to $1,200 psf ppr for the land behind last year's launches. The next launches are unlikely to be priced on the old benchmarks. And this is no longer theory: Vela Bay has already launched, at an average of $2,886 psf.

What that means for your budget

Let me put this into perspective. Say your budget today is $1.5 million. In today's market you still have a decent shot at a 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom new launch, depending on location, or perhaps a resale option with a bit more space: a 2-bedroom + study, maybe even a 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom.

Now ask yourself: will your $1.5 million budget increase in the next six months? Highly unlikely. It will very likely stay the same. That's the difference, because in 6 to 12 months the same budget may no longer give you the same choices:

A lot of buyers tell me, "Never mind, Melissa, I'll just wait first. I'll try the ballot, and if I can't get a unit I'll go for resale." That's a very normal way to think, and it's also where many walk into a trap. If new launch prices go up, resale prices move up in tandem. Waiting doesn't necessarily get you a cheaper option later. Sometimes it just means you pay more for less, and what used to be a comfortable budget becomes a compromised one.

So would you rather buy while you still have more options, more choices and more flexibility, or wait until your budget forces you to compromise? Many of the projects above (Skye at Holland, Penrith, Zyon Grand, River Modern) are already behind us; for most buyers, that cycle is done. What's ahead is where the decision needs to be made. If we already know the next price wave is coming, do you still want to leave everything to guesswork and balloting luck, or position yourself before the next step up fully kicks in? I'm not saying new launch is always better, or that resale is never a good option. What I'm asking is whether you want to buy while your budget still gives you choices.

The risk in resale: your exit

Right now buyers have two broad options, new launch or resale. Before we talk about whether resale is good or bad, it's important to understand the risk that comes with buying a resale property today.

Say it's 2026 and you buy a resale condo for $1.5 million. When's the earliest you can realistically sell? Once you factor in the holding period, transaction costs and enough time for prices to grow, your next exit point is around 2030. (For private homes bought from 4 July 2025, selling within four years also means paying seller's stamp duty, from 16% in the first year down to 4% in the fourth, so four years is the practical minimum for most buyers.)

If you buy at $1.5 million, you're not hoping to sell at the same price. Once you include stamp duty, legal costs, renovation, agent's fees and everything else, what would be the point? So how much do you need to sell for in 2030 for this to make sense? Here's roughly what you've spent besides the price:

An illustration. Your own costs depend on your renovation, your agent and whether ABSD applies to you (check with my stamp duty calculator). Interest comes on top: many owners treat it like the rent they'd otherwise pay, but it still affects your real return.

For illustration, say your target is $1.8 million, a profit of $300,000. That sounds fair. But now, what if your neighbour also wants to sell? They'll very likely benchmark against your listing price. Here's the part many buyers don't think about: some of those neighbours are first owners, and their entry price may be nothing like yours. You entered at $1.5 million in 2026; they bought years ago at $1 million, $1.1 million or $1.2 million.

Do they really need $1.8 million to make a profit? No. Even at $1.4 or $1.5 million they're sitting on a very healthy gain. If the market isn't fantastic, or they urgently need to move, they can afford to sell much lower than you. Can you? Highly likely not, because you entered later at a much higher price, and your break-even is no longer $1.5 million.

To be clear, I'm not saying you can't buy resale. There are definitely resale properties that make sense. But a lot of buyers assume cheaper means safer, and the real question isn't whether it's cheaper today. It's whether, when you need to sell, the market can support the price you need. If neighbours who bought much cheaper can undercut you and still make money, you won't have the same flexibility they have. That's the risk many buyers don't think about when they enter resale at today's prices.

The risk in new launches: expensive compared with what?

So does buying a new launch put you in a better entry position? Not every new launch can be bought, of course. New launches have risks too, and some don't make money. We can all agree that a lot of new launch prices are at all-time highs, and that's where buyers get cautious. The first reaction is usually, "Melissa, resale is so much cheaper, new launch is so expensive, why would I even look?" That's a fair concern. Whenever I talk about this, some people immediately think, "This agent is just trying to push me a new launch," and they rule out the option before looking deeper.

My goal isn't to tell you which one is right. It's to help you look at both sides clearly, so you can weigh the pros and cons yourself. If resale makes sense for your situation and you accept the risk, go for resale. If new launch makes more sense, go for new launch. There's no one-size-fits-all answer, but buyers shouldn't reject one option purely on emotion.

The real question isn't "is this new launch expensive?" It's "expensive relative to what?" Relative to the surrounding resale, to future launches, to nearby projects, to future land costs. Some new launches are very expensive and very risky. Others, even with a headline psf that looks high, may give a safer entry than most buyers think. Here's how I check before I even tell my clients to consider one:

Compare A with B, and most people say A is safer: it's $800 psf cheaper on paper. That's usually where buyers stop thinking. But what if there's also a property C nearby, a new launch at around $2,000 to $2,200 psf? Now you're comparing a $2,000 psf resale with a $2,000 to $2,200 psf new launch, and the question changes. Would you rather buy A, where many first owners entered below you and can undercut you when you want to exit? Or C, where everyone enters together at around the same benchmark, on a level playing field?

Think of it this way: if an iPhone 14 and an iPhone 17 cost about the same, which would you choose? Most people pick the 17. Why choose the older version if the newer one costs the same? It's the same principle. In certain parts of Singapore there are projects like C, where the new launch price isn't wildly disconnected from the resale around it. When that happens, the question is no longer "cheaper resale or expensive new launch?" but "at the same price, which gives me the safer position?"

The three questions I ask

The question isn't simply "should I buy resale or new launch?" That's too simplistic. The real question is which gives you the safer entry position today. This is how I evaluate it for my clients:

1. What are the surrounding benchmark prices? Am I buying something already too stretched, or entering at a price that still makes sense relative to the surrounding competition? A safe entry price matters.
   How to check: recent transactions in the project and the nearby ones, by unit type, not just asking prices.
2. How old are the surrounding projects? Am I buying something much older just as newer options arrive nearby, or does the age profile give me an advantage when I sell? Age affects both buyer demand and future resale competitiveness.
   How to check: the completion years of the projects within a few hundred metres, and what's under construction.
3. What will the future supply cost? If future launches come in at much higher prices, they help support today's entry price. If future supply comes in much cheaper, ask yourself whether your entry is really safe.
   How to check: the land prices of upcoming government land sale sites and en bloc sites in the area.

Sometimes resale makes sense, sometimes a new launch does. The goal is never just to buy property; it's to buy into the right position.

What has happened since the video

• The new benchmarks are showing up in the index. URA's flash estimate for the third quarter of 2026 shows private home prices up 1.4%, with the suburbs (OCR) leading at 2.2%. Analysts partly credited the higher price benchmarks set by projects like Vela Bay.
• Fewer launches in the third quarter, partly because of the Lunar Seventh Month, so sales volumes dipped. That's a pause in supply, not a fall in prices.
• EC demand is shifting. With new ECs moving to a 10-year MOP and no deferred payment scheme, some second-timers are looking at the private market instead, which adds to demand for mass-market condos. My EC guide covers this.

Questions people ask me

Is it better to buy a new launch or a resale condo in 2026?

Neither is automatically better. Compare the entry price with the surrounding resale and launches, check the age of the projects around you, and look at the land price of what's coming next. Then pick the one that gives you the safer position.

Should I wait for prices to come down?

You can, but have a plan for what happens if they don't. Newer land is more expensive, and resale prices tend to move with new launch prices, so waiting can mean paying more for less.

Why can't I sell my condo within four years?

You can, but for private homes bought from 4 July 2025 you'd pay seller's stamp duty: 16% of the price in the first year, 12% in the second, 8% in the third and 4% in the fourth.

What's the biggest risk when buying a resale condo?

Usually your exit: neighbours who bought much cheaper can sell below your break-even and still profit, and their sales set the benchmark for buyers and bank valuations.

How do I know if a new launch is overpriced?

Compare it with what's around it, not with an old average. If it's priced close to nearby resale and below what future land costs imply, it may be a safer entry than it looks.

With your budget today, where can you position yourself best before your choices start to shrink? That's what I hope this guide helps you think about. If you'd like help mapping your options for your budget and situation, I'm happy to go through it with you.

Related guides

• Why property in Singapore won't get cheaper: the 3 forces.
• Why property prices are still rising in 2026: how land costs become launch prices.
• OCR hits $3,000 psf: what still works in resale: how I pick a resale condo with an exit.
• When launch hype doesn't mean gains.

Land and launch prices as shown in my video of 1 June 2026, rounded; Zyon Grand's $3,050 psf launch average as reported by its developers in October 2025, and Promenade Peak's average of about $3,018 psf as reported in October 2025. The $1.5 million and property A, B and C examples are illustrations. Buyer's stamp duty on $1.5 million uses IRAS's rates from 15 February 2023. Seller's stamp duty: Ministry of Finance, for properties bought from 4 July 2025. Price index: URA's flash estimate for 3Q 2026 (final figures due 23 October 2026). This guide is general information, not financial advice.