Guide · Market outlook

Why property in Singapore won't get cheaper: the 3 forces to watch

By Melissa Chan · From my YouTube video of 17 August 2026 · Updated 10 October 2026

Every time a policy changes, everyone asks the same thing: is the market going up from here, or down? A market forecast can't tell you whether it's the right time for you. What it can do is show you the forces that actually move prices. There are three, and once you understand them, you'll know which one applies to your situation and what you're really waiting for.

Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video, with extra detail and what has happened since.

Where we are

On 28 July 2026 the government removed the 15-month wait-out for private owners buying an HDB resale flat. Private owners can now buy a resale flat straight away, without waiting after selling. It's a signal that the government sees resale conditions as stable. I explain the details in my guide on the wait-out removal.

A couple of weeks later, PropNex put out its own view: lower mortgage rates, population growth and the recent policy changes are expected to support the market for the rest of 2026, even as price growth moderates and new home sales stay below last year's. Its forecast is for private home prices to rise 3% to 4% for the whole year, with developers selling around 9,000 new private homes.

That's the market in general. It doesn't tell you whether a move makes sense for you. For that, zoom out to the three forces that decide where prices go.

Force 1: capital and wealth

The stock market is much higher than a year ago. If you bought a few months back, especially bank shares, you're probably sitting on a healthy margin. Some analysts have even called for the STI to hit 6,000. I won't tell you that's a given, but here's what is: in August the Ministry of Trade and Industry raised Singapore's 2026 growth forecast to 4.5% to 5.5%, and the economy grew 5.9% year on year in the second quarter alone.

So what happens after a run like this? In my video I lay new private sale prices against the STI's average close, quarter by quarter, since COVID. Whenever the STI came down, new sale prices came down with it, and when the STI moved back up, new launch prices went the same way. It isn't a one-off; it's a pattern that repeats.

Think about it: once you've made money in a market that has run up this hard, how many people want to put all of it back into stocks? Some will, if they're playing the long game. But a lot of that profit goes looking for something else, and property is usually on the list. More wealth today can create more buyers tomorrow.

Force 2: interest rates and demand

At the US Federal Reserve's latest decision before my video, rates didn't come down further. So should you wait for rates to fall before buying, or buy while they're where they are?

Think it through. When interest rates fall, more people qualify to buy, more demand enters the market, and when demand goes up, prices go up. Rates haven't fallen further because of inflation: energy costs and geopolitical tensions have kept it elevated. The good news is that inflation has eased slightly, which is why rates have held steady instead of climbing. It cuts both ways, though: if inflation goes back up, rates will follow.

At the time of my video, fixed home loan rates were around 1.35% and SORA around 1.13%. SORA had crept up slightly over the previous two months, but I think it will ease back down. That's why many buyers are locking into fixed rates: they want certainty. Honestly, I think rates will stay fairly flat from here, with no major swing up or down, and that's the good part. When rates are stable, you can lock in low knowing exactly what you're working with.

Look back at SORA over the past few years and it sat in a stable band twice. Both times, property prices kept climbing anyway. Buyers didn't wait for rates to drop further.

Force 3: supply and replacement cost

This is the one most buyers skip past, because it isn't about today's prices; it's about tomorrow's. If demand comes back, can future homes actually be built cheaper? Most people's gut says no, and the numbers agree.

Supply has genuinely come down

Unsold new private homes used to sit at around 30,000 units. By the second quarter of 2026 they were down to 14,929, a five-year low. Break it down by region and the take-up rate tells the real story: at the current sales pace, the Core Central Region (CCR) has about 4.4 years of unsold stock left, but the city fringe (RCR) and the suburbs (OCR) are down to about 1.2 years each. That's very tight.

The market absorbs close to 9,000 new launch units a year: about 10,000 were sold last year, and this year is tracking around 9,000. Yes, new government land sale (GLS) sites keep being sold, the sites developers bid on to build the next launches, but demand has been rising just as fast. That's why projects keep selling more than half their units on launch day. When supply shrinks and demand keeps showing up, that isn't a setup for cheaper homes. On my chart, every time unsold supply came down, prices moved up with it; from 2021, as unsold stock fell, prices climbed about 41%.

Land costs keep stepping up

Here's how real the land cost problem is. Two GLS sites in the Telok Blangah area, about 600 m apart:

psf ppr: dollars per square foot of the floor area the site is allowed to build, the usual way land prices are compared.

Same neighbourhood, same market conditions, and almost $200 psf ppr apart just because of when and how the land was bid. Berlayar Drive's estimated break-even is already around $2,700 psf: that's the developer's floor price, just to cover costs before any profit. So ask yourself: do you think Berlayar Close, the plot next door, will go for less than either of these? When land costs keep climbing like that, cheap isn't on the table.

Dunearn Road tells the same story. Two sites side by side on the same road, tendered about 10 months apart:

The second site does include shops on the first storey, which adds some value. But if competition had really cooled, the price should have come down, and it didn't. Developers are still willing to pay up, which tells you land costs aren't easing even when fewer bidders turn up.

And it isn't only Dunearn. Walk through the land tenders in Lentor over the years:

That's a $358 psf ppr swing from Lentor Gardens, which launched this year as Lentor Gardens Residences, to the latest site in the same neighbourhood. This isn't a one-off spike at one site; it's the same pattern across an entire area.

The long view

Zoom out to 2013 and the picture is clear. Average land prices have climbed from about $724 psf ppr in 2013 to about $1,486 today, and new sale prices have followed the same path to around $2,592 psf. The trend line moves in one direction. By region, it's steeper the closer you get to town:

Construction costs are climbing too

It isn't just land. Commodity prices and a labour crunch, partly tied to the conflict in the Middle East, are pushing up material and tender costs across the industry. CNA and other media have reported construction firms adjusting to what they call a "new normal" of higher material costs. Put land and construction together and you get a higher break-even for developers, which means a higher price floor for the next launch, not a lower one.

So prices may look stable right now, but don't mistake that for prices coming down. Land costs are still climbing underneath, and that eventually shows up in new launch prices. My take: in the second half of this year we'll see new benchmark prices, not a small step up but a reset in what normal pricing looks like for new launches.

Putting the three forces together

So when you ask yourself honestly whether property prices will be higher or lower in a year, you probably already know the answer. That's why timing matters. It isn't about rushing you. It's about making sure you're not the one paying more later for the exact same decision you could make today.

What has happened since

URA's flash estimate for the third quarter of 2026, out on 1 October, shows private home prices up 1.4%, after 0.5% in the second quarter: the fastest quarterly rise since late 2024. Non-landed homes in the OCR led with 2.2%, the RCR edged up 0.2% and the CCR slipped 0.1%. Over the first three quarters, prices have risen 0.9% a quarter on average.

At the same time, new home sales were the weakest for a third quarter since 1998, at about 1,082 units excluding ECs. That's mostly because very few projects launched during the Lunar Seventh Month, not because buyers disappeared: prices still rose. It's the pattern from Force 3 in action: thin supply, and prices that don't come down. The Berlayar Close site is still expected to go to tender in December, and its result will be the next land benchmark to watch.

What this means for you

• If you're waiting for lower rates: check whether what you're really waiting for is a cheaper property. Stable rates are already a window; further cuts may bring more competition, not lower prices.
• If you're comparing projects: look at the land price behind each one. Projects whose land was bought before the latest step up can still be priced below the next wave of launches.
• If you're upgrading from HDB: work out your numbers now, so you can act when the right unit appears instead of starting from scratch. The upgrade calculator shows what you can afford.

Knowing the forces is one thing; knowing where to look is another. I go through specific projects and pockets in my other videos and on my launches page.

Questions people ask me

Will Singapore property prices fall in 2026?

I don't expect a fall. Unsold stock is at a five-year low, land and construction costs keep rising, and URA's flash estimate showed private prices up 1.4% in the third quarter of 2026. Growth may be slower than in 2021 and 2022, but slower isn't cheaper.

Should I wait for interest rates to drop before buying?

Lower rates help your monthly instalment, but they also let more buyers qualify, which adds competition for the same units. In the past two periods when SORA was stable, prices kept climbing. If the numbers already work for you at today's rates, waiting may cost more than it saves.

What does "psf ppr" mean?

It's the land price per square foot of floor area the site is allowed to build. It's how land bids are compared. A developer's break-even is usually well above it, because construction, financing, taxes and marketing are added on top.

Why do land prices matter to someone buying a condo?

Because what a developer pays for land sets the floor for its selling price a year or two later. When nearby land is bought at a higher price, future launches next to your project will be priced higher too, which supports your exit.

Does the stock market really affect property prices?

Not one for one, but the pattern is consistent: since COVID, new sale prices have moved in the same direction as the STI. When people make money in the market, some of it rotates into property.

Related guides

• How land cost will push condo prices higher.
• Why property prices are still rising in 2026.
• The next 6 months could be a trap for buyers.
• The 15-month wait-out is gone. Here's who it really helps.

PropNex forecast from its first-half 2026 results of 13 August 2026. GDP figures: Ministry of Trade and Industry, 11 August 2026. Unsold stock: URA, second quarter of 2026. Land prices from URA tender results as reported by EdgeProp and others; Lentor figures rounded as shown in my video. Interest rates, take-up years and long-run land and price averages are as shown in my video of 17 August 2026. Private price index for 3Q 2026: URA's flash estimate of 1 October 2026. This guide is general information, not financial advice.