Guide · Market

Why property prices are still rising in 2026

By Melissa Chan · From my YouTube video of 4 May 2026 · Updated 8 October 2026

Uncertainty is rising, but buyers are still buying. Over the last few weeks we've seen global tensions, war risk, oil prices going up and markets turning volatile, all of which feed into inflation, construction costs and interest-rate uncertainty. Logically you'd expect people to hold back, and on paper it doesn't look like a great time to enter the market. That isn't what's happening on the ground. So what are these buyers seeing that others might be missing?

Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video, with some extra detail and what has happened since.

From oil prices to your launch price

When oil prices go up, it isn't only petrol. It affects transport, materials, labour and the whole construction chain. That matters a lot for developers: once their costs go up, their selling price has to follow. They can't simply absorb everything and sell cheaper.

This isn't just theory. Rising energy costs and supply chain disruptions have been reported as pushing construction costs higher. What we're seeing is a chain reaction: from oil, to transport, to materials, and eventually to property prices.

1. Energy and oil go up.
2. Transport and materials (steel, concrete, glass, fittings) cost more to make and move.
3. Construction contracts are priced higher, and labour costs follow inflation.
4. The developer's break-even rises: land, plus construction, plus financing, fees and holding costs.
5. Launch prices are set above that break-even.

By the time a project launches, the developer is already working from a much higher base cost. That's why, even when the market feels uncertain, prices don't necessarily come down the way people expect. The conversation shifts: it's no longer only "will prices go up or down?", but "where will the next benchmark be?" Future launches may be quietly setting a higher floor.

How land cost becomes a launch price: a real example

Land is one of the biggest parts of a property's price, so it's worth seeing how it flows through. Vela Bay, at Bayshore Road, is a good example because its land was bought recently, at a record price for a 99-year suburban government land sale site.

Two things stand out. First, everything that sits on top of the land (construction, financing, fees, marketing and the developer's margin) added well over $1,000 psf. Second, when the land itself costs more, the whole stack moves up with it. Compare that with launches built on land bought at $900 to $1,200 psf ppr a few years earlier, and you can see why newer launches come out higher.

Break-even estimates are rough: per square foot of allowed floor area isn't exactly the same as per square foot of a unit, and developers don't publish their full costs. The point is the direction, not the exact figure.

Demand is still very real

After everything above, look at what happened in a single weekend in April 2026. Tengah Garden Residences, the first private condo in Tengah, sold 853 of its 863 units, and Vela Bay sold 72% of its units at an average of about $2,886 psf.

Here's the interesting part. Tengah Garden Residences drew more than 1,900 expressions of interest, which means that even after launch weekend, around 1,100 people who wanted a unit didn't get one. Think about that for a second. These aren't casual enquiries; they're ready buyers who showed up and couldn't secure anything. So despite the uncertainty and the rising costs, demand is still very real, and it tells us something important: buyers today aren't just reacting to headlines. They're positioning themselves for where they think prices are heading next.

We've seen this before

This isn't the first time. In 2022, when the Russia-Ukraine war started, there was a lot of uncertainty too. Property prices didn't come down: they kept moving up. Every major disruption, especially something like war, tends to trigger inflation, and with inflation, costs go up across the board. Property prices don't usually move backwards the way people expect. They adjust, and then continue moving forward. What we're seeing today feels quite similar.

Zoom out further. From 2010 to now the market has been through cooling measures, en bloc cycles and the post-COVID boom. In every phase, one thing was consistent: prices adjusted, and then kept moving forward.

Why "harmonisation" makes this a new phase

Today we're at the start of a new phase: the first launches built under the harmonised floor area rules. Generally, the earlier you enter a new phase, the more room there is for future price movement. So would you rather enter at the start of a new cycle, or later, once prices have already adjusted upwards?

If "harmonised" is new to you, here's what it means:

• URA, SLA, BCA and SCDF used to measure floor area slightly differently. For developments submitted from 1 June 2023 (and government land sale sites tendered from 1 September 2022), they use one definition.
• In practice, you're no longer paying for things like air-con ledges (now usually common property) and void spaces as part of your unit's area. On older projects, air-con ledges alone could be around 4% to 5% of a unit's area.
• So a harmonised unit of the same size is more usable space. Its headline psf looks higher, but the total price is often similar to an older layout with more "non-living" area.

When you compare a harmonised new launch with an older resale project, compare the total price and the usable layout, not just the psf. Lentor Mansion was the first launch under these rules.

Based on current land costs, I'm already seeing about a 4% increase, and that's before further inflation, construction costs and everything else above. If costs keep rising, next year's launches will naturally come out at a higher price point.

The two reasons buyers aren't waiting

1. Inflation. As goods and services keep getting more expensive, cash loses value over time. So instead of waiting, some buyers would rather park their money in assets.
2. Land cost. Land in Singapore is limited and demand continues, so land prices don't generally come down. Since land is one of the biggest components of a property's price, when land cost goes up, property prices eventually follow.

Put rising inflation and rising land costs together, and it makes sense why buyers aren't waiting. They're moving early because they expect prices to be higher in the future: higher land costs plus higher inflation plus higher construction costs lead to a new price tag. That's exactly why you're seeing strong demand at today's launches.

What has happened since the video

Here's how the numbers have moved in the months since I made this video:

• Prices kept rising. URA's flash estimate for the third quarter of 2026 shows private home prices up 1.4%, after 0.5% in the second quarter. Over the first three quarters, prices rose an average of 0.9% a quarter.
• The suburbs led. Prices in the Outside Central Region (OCR) rose 2.2% in the third quarter. Analysts partly credited the higher benchmarks set by projects like Vela Bay, which is the land-cost effect described above.
• Fewer launches. New launches in the third quarter were down sharply, partly because of the Lunar Seventh Month, so sales volumes fell. Fewer launches doesn't mean lower prices.
• More supply ahead. The government's 2026 land sales Confirmed List supplies 9,320 private homes, more than 50% above the 10-year average, and about 60,600 private homes and ECs are in the pipeline. That's worth watching: more supply can slow price growth in specific areas, which is why location and entry price still matter.

URA itself says the economic outlook remains uncertain, including for interest rates. Prices moving forward on average doesn't mean every project does well.

The V-shape window

So what should you actually do in this kind of market? If prices are expected to move forward, timing becomes important, and this is where many buyers are focusing. They're trying to enter during what I call the V-shape window: not at the lowest price ever, but before the next price increase. Instead of chasing future prices, they're securing something based on today's land cost and today's pricing, because once new land comes in at a higher price, everything resets.

The goal is to future-proof your purchase. In practice, that often looks like one of these:

• Moving from an older, non-harmonised project into a newer one, before newer projects reprice higher.
• Buying into a better location, nearer an MRT line or in an area with limited new supply.
• Upgrading to a bigger unit at today's prices, rather than paying tomorrow's price for the same space.

It's not just about buying; it's about positioning yourself correctly before the next price benchmark comes in.

Buy now or wait? Five questions to ask yourself

1. Can I hold comfortably? Work out your loan and monthly instalment with room to spare if interest rates move. My affordability calculator takes you through it.
2. How long will I hold? If you buy a private home from 4 July 2025 onwards and sell within four years, you pay seller's stamp duty (16% in the first year, down to 4% in the fourth). Plan on holding at least four years.
3. What would waiting really get me? If launch prices keep moving up, resale prices tend to follow. Waiting can mean paying more for less, not buying cheaper.
4. Is this entry price safe relative to what's around it? Compare with nearby resale, nearby launches and the land price of what's coming next. My guide on new launch or resale goes through how I do this.
5. What does it cost to buy? Stamp duty and, for some buyers, ABSD add up quickly. Check them with my stamp duty calculator.

Questions people ask me

Will property prices drop in 2026?

Nobody can promise either way, and individual projects can underperform. But the drivers in this guide (higher land costs, construction costs and inflation) push the other way, and in the first three quarters of 2026 prices rose on average. If you're waiting for a broad drop, ask what you'll do if it doesn't come.

Does war or uncertainty make prices fall?

Not necessarily. In 2022 prices kept rising through the uncertainty, largely because disruption brought inflation and higher costs. Uncertainty can slow sales, but it doesn't automatically make homes cheaper to build.

Why does a new launch look so much more expensive per square foot?

Partly land and construction costs, and partly the harmonised floor area rules: you pay for less non-living space, so the psf looks higher while the total price can be similar. Compare total price and layout, not psf alone.

Is it better to buy new launch or resale right now?

It depends on the entry price relative to what's around it, the age of nearby projects and the price of future supply. Sometimes resale makes more sense, sometimes a new launch does.

Related guides

• How land cost will push condo prices higher.
• The next 6 months could be a trap for buyers: what your budget buys now and later, and how to judge a new launch against resale.
• When launch hype doesn't mean gains: why a sell-out launch weekend isn't the signal.
• OCR hits $3,000 psf: what still works in resale.

Launch results as reported for 25–26 April 2026. The 4% land cost figure is as shown in my video of 4 May 2026. Vela Bay land price and break-even estimate: EdgeProp. Harmonised floor area rules: URA circular DC22-09. Price index and supply figures: URA's flash estimate for 3Q 2026 (1 October 2026); URA publishes final figures on 23 October 2026, and flash figures can be revised. Seller's stamp duty: Ministry of Finance, for properties bought from 4 July 2025. Past trends don't guarantee future prices. This guide is general information, not financial advice.