Guide · New launch case study
When launch hype doesn't mean gains
In 2025 and 2026, launch after launch has sold more than 90% on day one, again and again. I get it: when you see numbers like that, it feels like you can't go wrong. If everyone else is buying, it must be a good investment. But here's the question nobody's asking: does selling out fast actually mean it will make you money? Here's one real project: what happened on launch day, and what happened to its owners years later.
Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video, with extra detail on how to check a project yourself.
In short:
- AMO Residence sold 98% on its first day in 2022. Its 3-, 4- and 5-bedroom owners are now in profit and selling steadily.
- Its 2-bedrooms tell a different story: 144 listed for sale against 3 sales in six months.
- What decides your exit isn't launch-day demand but three things: supply around the area, the gap between new and resale prices, and the bedroom type you buy (and who else bought it).
- Before you commit, know how fast you could sell, for how much, and what you'd do if things don't go as planned.
The sell-out headlines
Look at what happened over the past year: Pinery Residences sold 92.5% on its launch weekend, Vela Bay 72% on its launch weekend, Penrose 97% on day one, and GuocoLand's River Modern 90%. Project after project selling fast, and everyone celebrating a strong take-up rate.
I understand why it's exciting. As a buyer, you feel you've found something good and got in before the crowd. As an agent, I get why it's exciting too. But a good first day doesn't tell you what happens three or four years later, when you actually want to sell. That's a completely different question, so let's break it down with a real project, so you can see how it plays out in real life, not just in theory.
The case: AMO Residence
AMO Residence has 372 units off Ang Mo Kio Avenue 1. It was the first new launch in Ang Mo Kio in 8 years, and in July 2022 it sold 98% on its first day. Massive demand: everyone rushed down to the showflat because, honestly, there wasn't much else in the area, mostly landed homes and older HDB flats.
Fast forward to today. Looking at its profitable resales over the last two years, the lowest profit was about $101,000, the average about $455,000, and the highest about $720,000. On the surface that looks great: strong demand on day one, and owners in profit. But averages can be misleading, because not every unit type performed the same way.
| Top performer | Bought | Sold | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-bedroomheld 3 years 10 months | July 2022 at $2,104 psf (about $2.72 million) | 2026 at $2,662 psf, $3.438 million | About $720,000, about 6.2% a year |
Down the list it's the same pattern: 4- and 5-bedrooms, and a few 3-bedrooms, bought at launch for about $2,000 to $2,100 psf and now sitting on $500,000 to $700,000 of profit, with annualised returns mostly around 5% to 7%. So far, a genuinely good investment story. But notice something: everything on that list has three bedrooms or more. Where are the 2-bedrooms? That's where the story changes completely.
How to read "6.2% a year"
The annual figure spreads the gain over the holding period: $2.72 million growing to $3.438 million over about 3.8 years works out to roughly 6% a year, compounded. It's a gross figure: it doesn't take off buyer's stamp duty, legal fees, the agent's fee when selling or interest on the loan, so the owner's real return is lower. It's still a solid result, and a useful way to compare projects on the same basis.
Listings against sales, by bedroom type
Search AMO Residence on PropertyGuru and you'll find about 180 units for sale in a 372-unit project: close to half the development trying to sell at the same time. Of course, a listing isn't a sale. Just because 180 owners want to sell doesn't mean 180 buyers are lining up. So the real questions are: how many listings are actually turning into transactions, and is that happening evenly across unit types, or only for some? That's what separates the owners who exit smoothly from the ones who get stuck a little longer.
| AMO Residence | Listed for sale | Sold in the last 6 months | Prices |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3-bedroom | 23 | 15, every month (4 in May alone) | About $2.6 to $3.02 million |
| 2-bedroom743 sq ft | 144 | 3 | About $1.7 to $1.8 million |
The 3-bedrooms: 23 listed (probably slightly fewer unique units, since some listings are duplicates) against 15 sales in six months, with sub-sales every single month. If you own a 3-bedroom here, the data tells you there's real, consistent demand. You won't be stuck waiting long for a buyer. That's what a healthy resale market looks like.
The 2-bedrooms: 144 listed against just 3 sales in the same six months. Even allowing for duplicates, that's a massive gap: a huge oversupply of sellers with barely any buyers. It's not that prices have crashed; there have been too few transactions to even tell where pricing is heading, and that's exactly the problem. If you hold a 2-bedroom here and need to sell, you're up against far more competition than a 3-bedroom owner. You can still sell, but you'll likely need more patience and more room on price to get the deal done.
Why some unit types sell and others get stuck
It comes down to three things, and I look at them every time I evaluate a new launch.
1. Supply around the area
Next door in Lentor, about 3,000 units have launched over the last few years, including Lentor Modern, Hillock Green, Lentor Hills Residences, Lentor Mansion, Lentor Central Residences and Lentoria. That's a lot of competing stock. When AMO Residence launched, there wasn't much around it; that has changed fast, and it changes the picture for anyone trying to exit.
How to check: list the projects launched, under construction and planned within about 1 to 2 km, when they complete, and how many units of the type you're buying they add. Projects completing around the time you'd want to sell are your direct competition.
2. The gap between new and resale prices
Lentor started selling at around $1,900 psf, and new launches there now go for around $2,400 psf. That's a real gap. While the gap is wide, buyers are willing to pay for something that's ready to move into: AMO Residence works because it caters to people who want to move in now. But if a brand new project comes up at a similar price point, buyers would rather buy new and be the first owner than pay almost the same for something older, and that advantage disappears.
How to check: compare recent resale prices for your unit type in the project with the prices at the nearest new launches. The narrower the gap, the harder it is to sell an older unit at a premium.
3. The bedroom type, and who bought it
This is a big one. You need to understand the supply of each bedroom type and, just as importantly, the ratio of owner-occupiers to investors who bought that unit type. When a bedroom type skews heavily to investors, everyone tends to want to exit at around the same time, and that's exactly what we saw with AMO Residence's 2-bedrooms.
Timing makes this worse. Investors who bought at launch often plan to sell once seller's stamp duty no longer applies: three years for homes bought before 4 July 2025, and four years for homes bought from that date. So in an investor-heavy unit type, many owners become free to sell in the same window, and they all list together.
How to check: look at what share of the project is the unit type you want, how many are listed for rent as well as for sale, and how sales and rents for that type have moved. Lots of rental listings for small units is usually a sign of investor-heavy ownership.
Applying this to today's sell-out launches
None of this means the launches above are bad buys. It means their launch-day numbers don't answer the questions that matter for you. For any launch you're considering, ask:
- How much new supply will complete within 1 to 2 km around the time I'd want to sell?
- How wide is the gap between this launch and the resale prices around it, and will the next launches nearby come in higher or lower?
- Which unit types are most popular with investors here, and am I buying one of them?
- Is there real rental demand for my unit type, in case I need to hold longer?
If you already own a crowded unit type
If you're holding a unit type with many listings and few sales, you're not stuck forever, but plan for it:
- Price against transactions, not listings. Buyers and banks look at what has actually sold.
- Expect to need more patience, and think about whether you can wait for the wave of listings to clear.
- Check rental demand: if it's healthy, holding and renting may be a better option than selling into a crowded market.
I can look at your project's numbers with you and work out which makes sense.
The bottom line: a hot launch selling 90-something percent on day one is not the signal. What matters is what happens years down the road, when you want to exit, and that comes down to three things: how much supply is coming around the area, whether the price gap between new and resale is wide enough to justify going new or resale (probably the most overlooked of the three), and whether the bedroom type you're buying is dominated by owner-occupiers or investors.
Beyond that, don't just look at sale transactions; check the rental transactions too. They tell you a lot about the real demand in an area, not just the hype. And before you commit to anything, ask yourself:
- How fast can I actually sell this?
- How much can I sell it for, and what kind of profit or return am I realistically looking at?
- What's my exit plan if things don't go the way I expect?
Different areas have different demographics and different mixes of owner-occupiers and investors, and that on-the-ground detail makes a huge difference to how a project performs. It's not something you'll find by just scrolling listings; it takes someone tracking the ground. My honest take: waiting around for the next new launch isn't necessarily the smartest move right now, especially with where prices are heading. There are real opportunities in both the resale market and the post-launch market today, and finding them is what I help my clients do.
Questions people ask me
Does a launch that sells out mean prices will go up?
Not by itself. It shows demand on one day. Whether you make money depends on your entry price, the supply around you when you sell, and the unit type you bought.
Which unit types are safest for resale?
There's no universal answer: it depends on the area. In AMO Residence, family-sized 3-bedrooms and up have sold steadily, while 2-bedrooms were crowded with sellers. Check the supply and the owner mix for your unit type in your area.
Where can I see real transactions, not just listings?
URA publishes private property transactions, and property portals show recent sales and rentals by project. Look at sales by bedroom type over the last six to twelve months.
Should I avoid 2-bedroom units?
No. 2-bedrooms suit many buyers and can do well where they're scarce or popular with owner-occupiers. The lesson is to avoid buying into a unit type where many investors will want to sell at the same time as you.
Is post-launch or resale better than waiting for the next launch?
Sometimes. Units still available after a launch, and resale units priced well against what's around them, can give you a better entry than the next launch on pricier land. It depends on the numbers for each project.
Related guides
- OCR hits $3,000 psf: what still works in resale: four traits and three checks for picking a resale condo.
- The next 6 months could be a trap for buyers: judging a new launch against resale.
- Everyone wants a high floor. Don't make this mistake
Prices, profits, listing counts and transactions are as shown in my video of 20 July 2026; listing counts may include duplicates. The purchase price of the 4-bedroom is worked out from its sale price and profit. Seller's stamp duty: Ministry of Finance. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. This guide is general information, not financial advice.