Guide · Harmonisation
GFA harmonisation: the hidden risk for condos still under construction
Most people think harmonisation only affects resale owners. That's only half the story. Some of the most exposed owners haven't even collected their keys: their projects are still under construction, and the competition is already forming. If you bought early at a lower psf and you're waiting for TOP, here's why that doesn't make you as safe as it feels, who is most exposed, and the questions to ask now.
Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video, with extra detail and what has happened since.
In short:
- Harmonised layouts are tighter, so a launch with a high psf can still have a moderate total price, close to what you paid for an older, non-harmonised unit.
- Future buyers compare forward: an older 2-bedroom plus study at $2.4 million, or a newer harmonised unit with similar usable space for less?
- It rarely shows as a price drop. It shows as a ceiling: slower, flatter growth before your project even reaches TOP.
- Most exposed: buyers who entered near the peak, owners of 2-bedroom plus study and compact 3-bedroom units, and layouts that are only bigger on paper.
A quick recap of harmonisation
Until 2023, URA, BCA, SLA and SCDF measured floor area differently. Some counted air-con ledges, some counted planters, some counted curtain walls, and some didn't. So developers could inflate a unit's size on paper even though the usable living space didn't change. Harmonisation, for projects approved from 1 June 2023, changed that: most non-usable areas are now excluded from the official floor area. I explain how this hits young resale condos in part 1.
After going through more projects, more data and more upcoming launches, I realised the affected group is bigger than resale owners. It includes buyers who bought slightly earlier but whose projects are still under construction.
Why these owners feel safe, and why the market doesn't see it that way
Owners of non-harmonised condos still under construction usually feel very safe: they bought earlier, they locked in a lower psf, and their project isn't even finished. "I'm earlier, I'm cheaper, I'm protected." If I were them, I'd think the same. The problem is that future buyers don't judge safety by what you bought. They judge by what they can buy next. That difference in perspective is where the risk quietly starts.
Remember the example from part 1: same budget, same size on paper. A resale 2-bedroom at Riviere, completed in 2023, at about $2.5 million, against a brand new harmonised 3-bedroom at Zyon Grand, also 818 sq ft, for about $2.2 million. Neither is good or bad. But walk in as a buyer and most people lean towards the newer one with the extra bedroom before they even pull out a calculator. Harmonisation changes how space is packaged, how the total price is controlled, and what buyers feel they get for the same money. And the same logic applies to projects still being built.
A real example from the east
Two projects most people in the east know: Tembusu Grand, which got its TOP the month before my video, and Grand Dunman, still being built, with TOP likely around 2027. Both were launched earlier and both have non-harmonised layouts. Their owners are exactly the in-between group: not resale owners, but not new-launch buyers either.
Now place them against what was coming next: the harmonised project on the Bayshore Road site, at that point not yet launched. At the time I was careful to say we didn't have its layouts or pricing yet, so this wasn't about predicting exact numbers. But recent harmonised launches gave enough reference points to show how future buyers would compare.
Higher psf doesn't mean a higher total price
Whenever Bayshore came up, people's first reaction was: "The land price is super high, $1,388 psf ppr in the OCR. Those units will be very expensive." Per square foot, probably yes: I expected it to start at about $2,700 psf. But buyers don't anchor to psf. They anchor to the final number they have to pay: $2.1 million, $2.3 million, $2.5 million.
With harmonised layouts, developers shrink sizes, tighten planning and cut out non-usable areas, so a very high psf can still produce a reasonable-looking total. That's why I tell clients: a higher psf doesn't automatically mean a higher quantum. It's how upcoming harmonised projects quietly become real competition, even for projects that are already half built.
You can see it in Queenstown. Stirling Residences, completed in 2022: a 786 sq ft 2-bedroom plus study sold for about $1.98 million. Penrith, a brand new launch: a 786 sq ft compact 3-bedroom, also around $1.9 million. Same size on paper, same budget, very different feel. In recent harmonised launches, unit sizes have clearly shrunk, layouts are tighter and more efficient, with less wasted space and more rooms in the same footprint. Even with higher land prices and a higher psf, the total price stays controlled. Harmonisation lets developers keep the quantum competitive even with higher land costs.
How a future buyer will compare
Owners at Grand Dunman and Tembusu Grand bought at about $2.1 million to $2.2 million. To make a decent profit, they might need to sell at about $2.4 million to $2.5 million. Now add the illustration I used for Bayshore, at $2,700 psf:
| 2-bedroom plus study | Size | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Dunman or Tembusu Grand: what owners might want to sell at | Non-harmonised | About $2.4 million to $2.5 million |
| Bayshore illustration, harmonised | About 721 sq ft | About $1.95 million |
From a future buyer's view, the choice becomes very simple: an older, non-harmonised unit at about $2.4 million, or a newer, fully harmonised one with similar usable space at about $1.95 million? The newer option doesn't just compete for buyers; it quietly becomes the market reference. So even if owners of non-harmonised projects don't lose money, their upside gets capped. Prices can still grow, but more slowly, and the ceiling forms earlier: not because the project is bad, but because buyers always compare forward.
It gets more interesting when the comparison crosses unit types:
| Unit | Size | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Grand Dunman, 2-bedroom plus study | 775 sq ft | About $2.25 million |
| Tembusu Grand, 2-bedroom plus study | 883 sq ft | About $2.16 million |
| Bayshore illustration, harmonised 3-bedroom | About 818 sq ft | About $2.21 million |
An older 2-bedroom plus study, or a brand new 3-bedroom, for almost the same total? Psychologically that's very powerful: more rooms, a newer project, a similar budget. The competition is no longer unit for unit; it's across categories. Once that happens, the price ceiling tightens again. That's how harmonised projects don't just compete with resale: they reshape what buyers think is reasonable to pay for each unit type, quietly, before TOP and before resale even starts.
Why this matters before your project's TOP
- Reference points shift early. Buyers don't wait for your project to complete before forming opinions. They anchor to what's launching next and what's coming up nearby.
- Resale expectations diverge. Owners think, "Maybe I can sell at this price in three years." Buyers think, "Why would I pay that when I have this other option?"
- The growth rate is affected. Prices may still go up, but instead of sharp jumps you'll probably see slower, flatter growth, because newer harmonised supply keeps resetting what feels reasonable.
It doesn't show up as a crash. It shows up as a ceiling that forms quietly, much earlier than most owners expect.
Who is most exposed
- Buyers who entered near the peak. With a high entry price, there's less buffer, so a new harmonised project at a similar total price matters more.
- Unit types that overlap with future launches, especially 2-bedroom plus study and compact 3-bedroom units. These are exactly the layouts developers love to replicate in harmonised projects.
- Layouts that aren't meaningfully larger in usable terms. On paper your unit may be 100 to 150 sq ft bigger, but if buyers walk in and don't feel the difference, the premium is hard to justify.
To be clear: this doesn't mean these projects are bad, that prices will crash, or that you made a mistake. Market conditions, rules and supply patterns changed and shifted the playing field. It's about seeing where the new pressure points are earlier than everyone else.
Five questions to ask if you own one
- What is launching before your project reaches TOP?
- Are those projects harmonised?
- Is their total price close to what you paid? Compare quantum, not psf.
- When someone walks into your unit, is the usable space meaningfully different, or just larger on paper?
- Who will your future buyers realistically compare you with? Not who you think your competition is, but who they'll shortlist.
Once you map these out, most of the uncertainty disappears. Sometimes the answer is "you're fine". Sometimes it's "adjust your expectations" or "change your plans". Either way, it's better to know early.
What has happened since
The Bayshore Road site launched in April 2026 as Vela Bay, selling 72% of its units at an average of about $2,886 psf: higher than the $2,700 I'd used in my illustration. Its harmonised layouts came out like this, based on units still available on 8 October 2026:
| Vela Bay, still available on 8 October 2026 | Size | From |
|---|---|---|
| 2-bedroom | 592 sq ft | About $1.70 million |
| 2-bedroom premium | 678 to 689 sq ft | About $1.89 million |
| 3-bedroom | 883 to 893 sq ft | About $2.31 million (ground floor), about $2.59 million above it |
So the 2-bedroom point held: a newer harmonised 2-bedroom premium starts below $1.9 million, against the $2.4 million or so an older 2-bedroom plus study owner might hope for. The 3-bedrooms came in higher than my illustration, partly because many of the cheaper units had already sold. The lesson is the same: look at the actual quantum of the launches around you, not their psf, and check it again as each one launches.
Own a unit that's still under construction, or a young resale unit, and not sure how exposed you are? I'll go through your project, your unit type and the launches around you, and what buyers are likely to compare you with.
Questions people ask me
What is GFA harmonisation?
From 1 June 2023, URA, BCA, SLA and SCDF use one definition of floor area. Non-usable spaces such as air-con ledges are mostly excluded from the strata area, so new units look smaller on paper, while usable space may be much the same.
Does harmonisation affect condos still under construction?
Yes, indirectly. If your project was approved before harmonisation, newer harmonised launches nearby can offer similar usable space, sometimes an extra room, at a similar or lower total price. That can cap your resale price even before TOP.
Will prices of non-harmonised condos drop?
I don't expect drops. The more likely effect is slower growth and an earlier price ceiling, because buyers keep comparing with newer harmonised options.
Which units are most at risk?
2-bedroom plus study and compact 3-bedroom units bought near the peak, especially where the extra size is on paper rather than space you can feel when you walk in.
Why compare total price instead of psf?
Because buyers budget in total dollars. Harmonised units are smaller, so a high psf can still give a total price close to, or below, an older unit's.
Related guides
- GFA harmonisation: the hidden risk to your condo's resale price (part 1).
- Before you buy a resale condo: GLS and harmonisation.
- Singapore's private property market in 2026.
- Your property might appreciate, but can you sell it later?
Transaction prices and the Bayshore illustration are as shown in my video of 19 January 2026; the illustration was not a price forecast. Vela Bay's launch results as reported in April 2026; prices still available from the developer's availability list of 8 October 2026, which changes often. This guide is general information, not financial advice.