Guide · Resale demand
Your property might appreciate. But can you sell it later?
People ask me all the time whether their property will go up. There's a more important question most people don't ask: can you actually sell it later? Appreciation on paper is one thing; liquidity is another. I've seen properties that technically made money, but the owners took a year or two to sell and kept cutting the price just to exit. Here's how I judge whether real buyers will exist for a property when you want to sell, using supply and demand rather than feelings or marketing.
Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video, with extra detail and what has happened since.
In short:
- Prices going up and being able to sell are related, but not the same. Plan for who will buy from you in three to five years.
- Supply is easy to see: the URA Master Plan and land sales show how many homes are coming.
- Demand is the harder part. In HDB-heavy towns, condo demand rises and falls with the number of nearby flats reaching their MOP.
- Around Dairy Farm, about 4,000 flats reached MOP in 2024 and 2025 against about 3,500 new private homes. From 2026 to 2030 it's about 18,000 against 2,300.
Two different questions
If you own a home today, or you're buying a resale with an exit in mind, this matters, because most people mix up two things: prices going up, and being able to sell. They're related, but they're not the same. This guide is about the second: can someone realistically take over from you when you want to exit? That's where most owners get stuck, and supply and demand is how we understand it.
Supply: the easy part
Supply is objective; you don't need to guess. You can see it on the URA Master Plan and from land sales. When I look at an area, I zoom out first: which plots are zoned residential, which have already been sold to developers, which are coming up, and roughly how many homes that could mean over the next few years. Overlay the projects on the Master Plan and you can immediately see how many condos are stacking up in the same neighbourhood. That's your future competition, whether you like it or not.
Demand: the part most people underestimate
Demand isn't just "people want to buy property". Every area attracts different buyers. Some are dominated by HDB upgraders, some attract private owners making a second upgrade, some are more investor-driven, some more family-driven. If you don't know who your future buyer is, you're guessing when you buy. So the first question I ask is simple:
Who is likely to buy this home from me three to five years later?
Once you answer that, the research becomes practical: where those buyers come from, how many there are, and when they're likely to enter the market.
Punggol: a clean HDB upgrader town
Most private condo buyers in Punggol don't come from other condos. They come from HDB flats: young families and couples who bought a BTO early, reached their MOP, and upgraded. So condo demand in Punggol isn't driven by sentiment; it's driven by how many HDB owners are unlocking at that point in time.
| Punggol | New private supply vs HDB flats reaching MOP | Private prices |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 to 2014 | More private supply than upgraders | Didn't perform well; a slight decline |
| 2017 to 2019 | Almost no new private supply; healthy MOP numbers | Up about 37% |
| 2020 onwards | Very limited private supply; MOP numbers still decent | Up about 18% |
In towns like Punggol the relationship is clear: low private supply and strong upgrader demand push prices up; when supply runs ahead of upgrader demand, prices struggle.
Jurong East and West: the same story, bigger
Jurong has a very large HDB population, and a huge share of condo buyers come from within the same town: people grow up there, their families and parents are nearby, and when they upgrade they don't move far.
- Around 2011, private supply ran ahead of the flats reaching MOP, and private prices fell sharply. Not because the location became bad, but because there weren't enough ready buyers to absorb the new homes.
- Around 2012 to 2013, MOP numbers stayed similar but there was no new private supply, and prices rebounded strongly.
- 2014 to 2016: private supply picked up faster than upgrader demand, and prices softened again.
- 2019 to 2022: no meaningful new private supply while MOP numbers stayed healthy, and private prices surged.
- More recently, as private supply came back while upgrader demand stopped accelerating, prices tapered off and even dipped slightly.
Prices in an HDB-dominated estate don't move just because the market is good. That helps, but they move when upgrader demand and private supply line up. When the balance is off, even strong locations go sideways.
Dairy Farm: a realistic version of the cycle
Dairy Farm sits in between. It still draws a large pool of buyers from nearby HDB estates like Bukit Batok, Bukit Panjang and Choa Chu Kang, so its demand engine is largely HDB upgraders.
| Dairy Farm | What happened | Resale prices |
|---|---|---|
| 2017 to 2019 | Lots of new private supply compared with flats reaching MOP | Down about 8% to 9% |
| 2020 to 2022 | New private supply slowed; MOP numbers still high | Up about 13% |
| Late 2023 to 2025 | Private supply picked up again in big numbers; upgraders not growing as fast | Down about 9% |
The MOP numbers explain it. From 2017 to 2023, about 20,000 HDB flats in Bukit Batok, Bukit Panjang and Choa Chu Kang reached their MOP: a lot of potential upgraders over a few years, financially ready and already familiar with the area. In 2024 and 2025, that dropped very sharply to only about 4,000. The buyer pool suddenly became much smaller. Private supply didn't disappear, transactions still happened, but demand wasn't strong enough to keep pushing prices up.
Prices don't only move on interest rate news or project quality. Very often it's simply how many real buyers exist in that window, and in an HDB-driven estate, those buyers mostly come from nearby flats reaching MOP. You can buy the same project, stack and layout, but enter in a high upgrader cycle or a low one, and your resale outcome will be very different.
Treehouse: same project, different cycle
Treehouse is a resale condo in the Dairy Farm area, completed in 2014. Between 2021 and 2023 its prices rose about 38%. That wasn't random: it overlapped with a strong wave of more than 12,000 HDB flats in Bukit Batok, Choa Chu Kang and Bukit Panjang reaching MOP. Many of those households knew the area, had parents or children's schools nearby, and looked at options like Treehouse. Then in 2024 and 2025, flats reaching MOP across the same towns fell to about 4,000, and Treehouse's prices went flat. The layout, the facilities and the location didn't change; the demand did.
Dairy Farm Residences: new, but timing went against it
Dairy Farm Residences was completed in 2024. On paper there's nothing wrong with it: new, modern, good layouts, decent facilities, in the same enclave that benefited from the earlier upgrader wave. But it reached the resale market just as the number of flats reaching MOP fell to about 4,000, and its prices trended down about 7% to 8% over the last two years. Not because the development is bad or the location became unattractive, but because fewer buyers were ready to upgrade. Many buyers assume a new project automatically means better resale. Resale depends much more on who can buy from you, and when.
Putting numbers on it: District 23
| Period | HDB flats reaching MOP (potential upgraders) | New private homes | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 to 2025 | About 4,000, mostly in Bukit Batok and Choa Chu Kang | About 3,500, from projects like Dairy Farm Residences, Midwood and The Arden | About 1 to 1: resale felt slow |
| 2026 to 2030 (Districts 23 and 24) | About 18,000, mostly in Tengah, Bukit Batok, Bukit Panjang and Choa Chu Kang | About 2,300, from projects like Copen Grand, Botany at Dairy Farm, Hillhaven, The Myst and Narra Residences | Far more potential buyers than new homes |
In 2024 and 2025, new private homes nearly matched the households that could realistically upgrade, and not everyone upgrades: some stay put, some downgrade, some move elsewhere. Demand was thinner than most people assume, so projects completing then faced more resistance. It wasn't a quality issue; it was a numbers issue.
From 2026 to 2030, the imbalance flips. That doesn't mean prices will shoot up every year; markets don't work like that. It means the exit environment becomes structurally healthier, with more potential buyers and less competition.
Yes, I included Tengah, which is technically District 24. Will Tengah owners upgrade to Dairy Farm or Bukit Panjang? Yes and no: some want to stay near their parents, some care about schools, some prefer a quieter enclave, some just want familiarity. Not everyone will, and that's fine. With tens of thousands of households reaching MOP, even a small share choosing nearby private enclaves creates meaningful demand. That's how these estates have always worked: a steady flow of families over many years, making slightly different choices.
It doesn't apply to every estate
This logic works very strongly in HDB-driven estates, where a big share of buyers upgrade from nearby flats. But some areas have a very different buyer profile. At projects like Emerald of Katong, around 70% or more of buyers already live in private homes; they're unlikely to be HDB upgraders. There, demand is less tied to MOP cycles and more to wealth effects and en bloc money, school zones, lifestyle preferences, and how attractive the project is compared with other private options nearby.
So you can't use one formula for everything. Before you look at supply numbers or MOP data, ask the basic question first: who buys in this area, or this project? If it's mostly HDB upgraders, MOP supply matters a lot. If it's mostly private owners, a different set of factors drives demand. That one distinction can change the whole risk profile of a purchase.
How to check a property's exit
- Identify the likely buyer. Mostly HDB upgraders, private owners, investors or families?
- Map the supply. On the URA Master Plan and recent land sales: how many private homes complete near you in the years you might sell?
- Count the upgraders (for HDB-driven areas): how many flats in the nearby towns reach MOP in the same window?
- Compare the two. If new private homes roughly match upgraders, expect a slow resale. If upgraders far outnumber new homes, the exit is healthier.
- Check the layout fits that buyer. My guide on bigger unit vs better location shows why.
What has happened since
The western pipeline is already showing the demand. Tengah Garden Residences, the first private condo in Tengah, sold 853 of its 863 units, and Narra Residences at Dairy Farm Walk, one of the projects in the 2026 to 2030 pipeline above, is now on sale. Projects launching into a period with many more upgraders than new homes are the ones to look at if you're buying in the west with an exit in mind.
Not sure what your future buyer looks like, or whether your property depends on HDB upgrader cycles or private buyer cycles? I'll go through the data for your project with you. No pressure, no hard selling.
Questions people ask me
Why can't some owners sell even when prices have gone up?
Because appreciation and liquidity are different. If many similar homes are for sale at the same time and there aren't enough ready buyers, sellers wait longer and cut prices, even in a rising market.
How do HDB MOP numbers affect condo prices?
In HDB-heavy towns, many condo buyers are HDB owners who've just reached their MOP. When many flats reach MOP and few new condos complete, there are more buyers than homes and prices tend to rise. When new condos match or exceed upgraders, resale slows.
Does a new condo always resell better than an older one?
No. Dairy Farm Residences, completed in 2024, saw prices dip because it reached the market when few nearby flats were reaching MOP. Timing and demand mattered more than age.
Where do I find future supply?
On the URA Master Plan (residential zoning) and the Government Land Sales results and programme, which show sites sold and coming up. Add the projects already launched and their expected completion dates.
Does this apply to areas like the East Coast?
Less so. Where most buyers already own private homes, demand depends more on wealth effects, en bloc money, schools and lifestyle than on HDB MOP cycles.
Related guides
- Bigger unit or better location: which actually made more profit?
- Why 48,000 HDB owners are about to change the market.
- Before you buy a resale condo: GLS and harmonisation.
- Should you buy an older property?
MOP counts, private supply counts and price changes are as shown in my video of 14 January 2026, from HDB and URA data; district totals are rounded. Tengah Garden Residences' sales as reported in 2026. This guide is general information, not financial advice.