Guide · Upgrading from HDB
Why 48,000 HDB owners are about to change the market
If you're planning to upgrade from an HDB flat to a condo, 2027 could be the hardest window to do it in. A new survey of more than 1,500 HDB owners looks like good news on the surface. Read between the lines, and it's a warning about timing that most people won't see until it's too late.
Prefer to watch? This guide follows the video. The figures are from the survey below.
In short:
- In PropNex Research's 2026 survey of more than 1,530 HDB owners, 55.1% hope to upgrade to private housing, and the younger the owner, the stronger the wish.
- About 48,000 flats reach their MOP from 2026 to 2028, so many upgraders could be selling and buying at the same time.
- If you're upgrading in the next one to two years, price your flat to move, plan your timing, and lean towards the bigger unit your budget allows.
The survey
PropNex Research's HDB Flat Owners Sentiment Survey (2026 edition) was carried out for The Straits Times. It asked more than 1,530 HDB owners, between February and June 2026, about their housing budgets, their upgrading plans and how they buy. It comes at a time when the HDB resale market is moderating after years of strong growth.
If you'd like to go through the full report yourself, message me and I'll send it to you.
The headline: 55.1% hope to upgrade
44.9% of the owners say they have no plans to upgrade to private housing. Flip that around, and 55.1% still hope to own a private home one day. More than half are holding on to the dream of upgrading. On its own, that sounds like normal upgrading demand. But the number isn't spread evenly across HDB owners.
Split by age, it's a different story
| Owners who are… | Hope to upgrade to private |
|---|---|
| Baby boomers | 27.9% |
| Generation X | 49.3% |
| Millennials | 65.8% |
| Generation Zonly 21 respondents, so treat this as a sign, not a firm number | 85.7% |
The pattern is clear: the younger the owner, the stronger the pull to upgrade. Only 34.2% of millennials, and 14.3% of Gen Z, say they have no plans to upgrade.
The older groups make sense to me. When I meet clients in their fifties and sixties, most are already thinking about retirement and don't want a bigger loan. If they were going to upgrade, they would probably have done it in the last ten years.
The younger groups are the ones to watch. They have the longest loan tenures and the lowest instalments relative to their income, so they are the most able to act. And they are already spread across private homes in the OCR, RCR and CCR, and even landed property. The older generation tends to stay in HDB; the younger generation is increasingly choosing private.
If you own an HDB flat today and plan to sell in the next five to ten years, this tells you who your future buyers are, and whether your flat is something the next generation will want to buy from you.
The number no one is talking about
In my previous video I showed the supply coming up: about 48,000 flats reach their minimum occupation period (MOP) between 2026 and 2028. If 55.1% of owners hope to upgrade, that's roughly 24,000 households thinking about the same move.
Even if only 20 to 30% of them actually act, that's somewhere around 5,000 to 7,000 flats coming onto the resale market over the next few years, and the same number of upgraders looking at condos. So this survey isn't really a demand story. It shows you the size of the queue in front of you. If you're an HDB owner planning to upgrade, more than half of your future competitors have just told you what they're hoping for.
And that 55.1% is concentrated among millennials and Gen Z: the generation raising young families, who need more space, and who are the most comfortable taking on a loan because they can use a full loan tenure. If a big part of this generation moves at around the same time, that's not a slow trickle of demand. It's a wave.
If you're upgrading: price your flat to move
The survey also asked owners what they expect when they sell:
- 40.2% expect to sell their flat at a premium
- 36.5% expect to sell at market rate
- 23.3% expect to sell at a discount
Expecting a premium is understandable. But if you're upgrading, you'll want to move before everyone else does, and holding out for a premium slows your sale down. While you wait, condo prices can move faster than your HDB price. By the time you sell, the gap between what your flat fetches and what the condo now costs can be wider, not narrower.
I'm not saying you should sell at a discount. I'm saying price your flat reasonably, so you can move before the others do. This matters most if you're planning to upgrade now or within the next one to two years. To see what you'd walk away with, try my sale proceeds calculator, and plan the dates with the HDB sale timeline.
Where upgraders' money is going
About one third of owners say their current home suits them. Among the rest, 17.2% are looking at a BTO flat and 13.1% at a resale HDB flat, and a large group is looking at new launch and resale ECs, new launch and resale condos, and a small segment at landed homes. So what budgets are they working with?
| Housing budget | Share of owners |
|---|---|
| Below $2.5 million | 92.1% |
| $1 million to $1.5 millionthe largest single group | 30.1% |
| $1.5 million to $2 million | 21.9% |
| $2 million to $2.5 million | About 10% |
- $1 million to $1.5 million: a lot of other upgraders are aiming for exactly this amount. If your budget sits here and you don't expect it to grow in the next 6 to 12 months, plan ahead and move before everyone else does.
- $1.5 million to $2 million: in the OCR, three-bedroom resale ECs and three-bedroom private condos in this range move extremely quickly on the ground. This is the sweet spot for today's mass market, so plan your purchase properly and move with intention.
- $2 million to $2.5 million: this typically buys a two-bedroom new launch condo, and I don't see the same urgency there as for bigger units.
This is why I keep telling my clients: if your budget allows, lean towards the bigger unit, a three- or four-bedroom rather than a two-bedroom. We can already see where demand is flowing, and it isn't towards the smaller units. Not sure what you can afford? My affordability calculator works it out from your sale, CPF and income.
What buyers look for
When owners were asked about their main considerations, especially with an investment angle in mind, the top three were:
- Close to an MRT station, bus interchange or transport hub: 77%, by far the biggest factor
- A reasonable price, within budget: 67%
- The right amount of space: 41.6%
Which brings me back to unit size. If your budget is between $1 million and $2 million, the range that covers more than half of the owners surveyed, aim for as big a unit as you can. People today want more space, that's where demand is going, and that's what will hold its value.
On location, 40.6% want to stay near their current home, followed by the city fringe (18.5%) and the east (13.7%). But location alone isn't everything. Unit size, the size of the project and the demand in that specific area matter just as much, and sometimes more. Location gets you in the door; these decide whether the property performs.
My two playbooks
Whether you're selling or buying, I've put together a playbook for each:
- For sellers: stay, sell or restructure. Sentiment isn't a decision. Staying may be right, and selling may be right, depending on your numbers and your plan for the next home.
- For buyers: buy with clarity, not pressure. The strongest buyer isn't the one with the biggest loan. It's the one with clear eligibility, a resilient budget and an actual plan.
A note: I'm not saying an HDB flat is a bad option, or that you shouldn't buy one. In my HDB videos I explain which owners need to be more cautious, and which are very safe holding on.
Want a copy of either playbook, or to talk through your own numbers? Whether you're staying, selling or upgrading, message me and we'll work it out properly, based on your situation and the latest data.
Questions people ask me
How many HDB owners want to upgrade to private property?
55.1% of the more than 1,530 HDB owners in PropNex Research's 2026 survey hope to own a private home one day; 65.8% of millennials and 49.3% of Gen X.
How many HDB flats reach their MOP from 2026 to 2028?
About 48,000: around 13,500 in 2026, 15,000 in 2027 and 19,500 in 2028, according to the Ministry of National Development's figures.
Should I hold out for a premium when I sell my HDB flat?
If you're upgrading soon, price it reasonably so you can move before others do. While you wait for a premium, condo prices can move faster than your flat's.
What budget are most HDB upgraders working with?
92.1% of owners surveyed have a budget below $2.5 million, and the largest group, 30.1%, is at $1 million to $1.5 million.
What do upgraders look for most?
Being close to an MRT station or transport hub (77%), a reasonable price (67%) and the right amount of space (41.6%).
Related guides
- HDB prices 2026: new rules are quietly changing who can buy your flat
- The 15-month wait-out is gone. Here's who it really helps
- Don't sell your HDB after 55 before you've done this math
Source: PropNex Research, HDB Flat Owners Sentiment Survey 2026 (more than 1,530 HDB owners, February to June 2026). The 48,000 flats reaching MOP from 2026 to 2028 and the 5,000 to 7,000 estimate are my own working, not part of the survey. This guide is general information, not financial advice.